土地因素对农村劳动力向不同级别城镇转移影响的研究基于黑苏鄂川农户调查

STUDY ON THE EFFECT OF LAND FACTORS ON RURAL LABOR TRANSFER TO DIFFERENT LEVELS OF CITIES AND TOWNSBASED ON THE FARMER SURVEY DATA OF HEILONGJIANG, JIANGSU, HUBEI AND SICHUAN PROVINCES

关键词:  土地因素  农村劳动力转移  不同级别城镇  二元Logistic模型  多元有序Logistic模型

Key words:  land factor  rural labor transfer  different levels of cities and towns  binary Logistic model  multivariate ordinal Logistic model

摘要:

目的 探索土地因素对农村劳动力向不同级别城镇转移的影响，为制定差别化的农村土地政策提供现实依据。方法 文章基于东北、东部、中部和西部四大区域典型省份（黑龙江省、江苏省、湖北省和四川省）农户调查数据，运用二元和多元有序Logistic回归模型挖掘土地因素对农村劳动力是否转移及向不同级别城镇转移决策的影响。结果 （1）转出土地和土地流转服务对农村劳动力是否转移有正向影响，土地确权、土地调整次数和土地功能认知则有负向影响。（2）土地确权、转出土地和土地流转服务对已转移农村劳动力向不同级别城镇转移有推动作用，土地数量、机械化难易程度、土地调整次数、土地功能认知则有抑制作用。（3）相对于中部地区而言，东北和东部地区农村劳动力倾向于转移；西部地区的已转移劳动力向高级别城镇转移概率更大。结论 健全土地流转市场、保障土地产权安全性和稳定性、构建新型土地经营体系和配套的土地保障体系，有助于农村劳动力向不同级别城镇有序转移。

Abstract:

This study explores the impact of land factors on the transfer of rural labor to different levels of cities and towns to provide practical basis for the formulation of differentiated rural land policies. Based on the survey data of rural households conducted in four typical provinces (Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, Hubei, and Sichuan) in Northeast, East, Central and West, the binary and multivariate ordinal Logistic regression models were used to explore the impact of land factors on the transfer of rural labor to different levels of cities and towns. The results showed that : (1) Land transfer-out and land transfer services had positive effects on rural labor transfer; while land confirmation, land adjustment times, and land function cognition had negative effects on rural labor transfer. (2) Land right confirmation, land transfer-out and land transfer services had promoted the transfer of transferred rural labor to different levels of cities and towns; land quantity, mechanization difficulty, land adjustment times, and land function cognition had inhibited the transfer of transferred rural labor to different levels of cities and towns. (3) Compared with the central region, the rural labor in the Northeast and Eastern regions tended to transfer; the transferred rural labor in the Western region was more likely to transfer to higher-level cities and towns. In summary, improving the land transfer market, ensuring the security and stability of land property rights, building a new land management system, and constructing supporting land security system will help the rural labor transfer to different levels of towns and cities in an orderly manner.