山东省粮食供需变动下农业生产格局研究

STUDY ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION PATTERN UNDER THE CHANGE OF GRAIN SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN SHANDONG PROVINCE

关键词:  粮食供需  农业生产格局  农业种植结构  空间转移系数  山东省

Key words:  grain supply-demand  agricultural production pattern  agricultural planting structure  spatial transfer coefficient  Shandong province

摘要:

目的 区域农业生产格局通过不断适应经济发展和社会消费变动实现调整，将山东省137个县域单元作为研究区域，以期对其粮食供需关系和供需关系变动下农业生产新变化进行细致描述。方法 文章基于县域尺度，以重心模型刻画近10年山东省粮食供需背景，综合利用粮食生产空间转移系数、区位熵、结构变动指数等方法，分别从产量和结构探讨农业生产在粮食供需背景之下的格局演变。结果 （1）2008—2017年山东省缺粮区数量增长，粮食供需重心明显西移，西部须面对来自自身粮食需求和东部缺粮量同时上涨的双重压力。（2）山东省粮食生产转出区数量先减后增，粮食生产转入区数量先增后减，粮食生产与供需变动存在空间一致性，粮食生产转入区进一步向西集中。（3）供需变动下山东省农业种植结构仍以小麦和玉米为主，粮食种植面积进一步扩大，而非粮作物集中趋势增强。（4）山东省农业生产结构变化指数高值区可分为粮食生产提升型和城市规模扩张型两类。前者为缓解粮食供需压力，粮食作物种植面积显著上升；后者呈现以市区为中心的接触扩散格局，但也通过保持粮食作物种植面积稳定粮食供需，并未出现粮食作物大规模转变为非粮作物。结论 在粮食供需背景下，山东省应因地制宜地调整农业生产，以求适应供需关系的新变化。

Abstract:

The adjustment of regional agricultural pattern is influenced by the changes of economic development and social consumption. This research aims to explore developments in the grain supply-demand of Shandong province and its impact on the regional agricultural pattern. Based on the county scale, the gravity center model was used to describe the situation of grain supply-demand in Shandong province from 2008 to 2017, and the methods of spatial transfer coefficient of grain production, location entropy, structural change index were adopted to investigate the evolution of agricultural production under the background of grain supply-demand. The results were as follows: (1) Over recent decade, the number of grain shortage area increased, and the center of gravity of grain supply-demand shifted to the west significantly, showing the spatial characteristics of grain shortage in the east and grain demand in the west, so the west faced the dual pressure from its own and the east. (2) The quantity of grain production transferred out first decreased and then increased, while the quantity of grain production transferred in first increased and then decreased. The spatial consistency between grain production and the change of supply-demand. In addition, the grain production capacity was further concentrated to the west. (3) Under the change of supply and demand, the agricultural planting structure in Shandong province were still dominated by wheat and corn. The grain planting area was further expanded, while the central tendency of non-grain crops was enhanced. (4) The high value area of agricultural production structure change index in Shandong could be divided into food production promotion type and urban scale expansion type. In the former category, the planting area of grain crops increased significantly, while in the latter one, the planting area of grain crops remained stable in the declining trend of total agricultural planting area, and presented a contact diffusion pattern centered on the urban area. So, under the background of grain supply and demand, Shandong province should adjust its agricultural production according to local conditions in order to adapt to the new changes in the relationship between supply and demand.