| 摘要: |
| 目的 文章选取黑龙江省产粮大县——龙江县的调研统计数据，了解农民种粮积极性不足的态势以及影响农民种粮意愿的主要因素，为保障粮食安全和农村土地制度改革提供政策建议。方法 采用改进层次分析法（IAHP）构建了3个层次、11个指标的种粮意愿评价体系，对影响龙江县农民种粮意愿的主要因素进行分析和判别，对农户种粮意愿状况进行评价。结果 从农户基本情况、农户土地状况、粮食价格及种植成本和政策及外部环境等4个层面对农业劳动力数量、种粮收入、非农收入、自有土地面积、租入土地面积、租入土地变化情况、预计粮食价格增长幅度、每公顷种植成本、种粮补贴、保险投入和受自然灾害面积等11个评价指标进行定量分析和实证判别。研究表明，其中粮食价格增长幅度、租入土地面积、每公顷种植成本、种粮补贴、自有土地面积等5项指标权重值分列前5位，对农民种粮意愿影响比较显著。参与调研的135户农户中影响种植意愿综合评价指数分布在［0.19，0.72］，其中129户分布于区间［0.4，0.7）中，这表明2019年绝大多数农民种粮意愿一般。结论 通过对研究区域农民种粮意愿及主要影响因素分析，有针对性地提出对策建议，为提高农民种粮意愿提供政策决策依据，同时也为提高其他地区农民种粮积极性提供参考借鉴。 |
| 关键词: 产粮大县 农民种粮意愿 改进层次分析法（IAHP） 评价体系 龙江县 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20210824 |
| 分类号:F325 |
| 基金项目:黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目“黑龙江省农地流转主体行为选择的影响因素研究”(18JYB141) |
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| EVALUATION ANALYSIS AND COUNTERMEASURE RESEARCH ON FARMERS’ GRAIN PLANTING WILLINGNESS IN LARGE GRAIN-PRODUCING COUNTIES *——A CASE STUDY OF LONGJIANG COUNTY IN HEILONGJIANG PROVINCE |
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Wu Ling1, Yuan Chengli2
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1.College of Marxism, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030, Heilongjiang, China;2.College of Marxism, Shandong Polytechnic, Jinan 250104, Shandong, China
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| Abstract: |
| The research data in this paper comes from Longjiang county which is a major grain-producing county in Heilongjiang province. During the investigation, the situation of farmers' lack of enthusiasm in grain planting and the main factors are analyzed, and suggestions for ensuring food security and rural land system reform are stated. The improved analytic hierarchy process (IAHP) was used to construct a grain willingness evaluation system with 3 levels and 11 indicators. Among the 11 indicators, the increase in grain price, leased land area, planting cost per hectare, grain subsidy and self-owned land area were ranked among the top 5, which had a significant impact on farmers' willingness to grow grain. Among the 135 households involved in the survey, the comprehensive evaluation indexes of influencing planting intention ranged from 0.19 to 0.72, of which 129 were distributed in [0.4~0.7). It showed that the vast majority of farmers had a medium willingness to grow grain in 2019. This paper analyzes farmers' willingness to grow grain and the main influencing factors in Longjiang county, and puts forward countermeasures and suggestions. Based on this, it provides theoretical basis for raising farmers' willingness to grow grain, and also provides reference for raising farmers' enthusiasm to grow grain in other areas. |
| Key words: major grain producing county the willingness in grain planting improved analytic hierarchy process(IAHP) assessment system Longjiang county |
