价补分离政策下农户的玉米种植行为研究基于吉林省宏观与微观数据分析

RESEARCH ON FARMERS’ CORN PLANTING BEHAVIOR UNDER THE POLICY OF SEPARATING PRICE AND COMPENSATIONBASED ON THE MACRO AND MICRO DATA ANALYSIS IN JILIN PROVINCE

关键词:  玉米  种植行为  价补分离政策  多元Logistic模型  吉林省

Key words:  corn  planting behavior  separation policy of price compensation  multivariate Logistic model  Jilin province

摘要:

目的 通过对价补分离政策实施前后吉林省玉米种植相关数据的分析，初步了解政策对农户种植行为产生的影响，进而探索吉林省农户在价补分离政策实施的第3年其玉米种植行为所受的主要影响因素。方法 文章以吉林省玉米种植农户为研究对象，基于宏观与微观数据，采用多元Logistic模型分析农户玉米种植行为与政策之间的关系。结果 价补分离政策改变吉林省农户的玉米种植行为。因价补分离政策实施导致的玉米价格下跌造成单位面积收益降低时，农户会寻求其他单位面积收益更高的作物，进而调整种植行为。结论 玉米生产者补贴的发放对农户玉米种植行为调整具有引导作用。玉米优势产区与非优势产区的农户对价补分离政策不同的种植行为响应验证价补分离政策在保障粮食安全的同时调减玉米非优势产区玉米种植的作用。同时政策在实施过程中存在农户理解不到位及滞后性问题，因此从完善价补分离政策并提高农户对政策的认知程度等方面提出建议以更好地实现在调整玉米种植结构的同时稳定农户收入的政策目标。

Abstract:

Through the analysis of the relevant data of corn planting in Jilin province before and after the implementation of the price-compensation separation policy, we had a preliminary understanding of the impact of the policy on farmers’ planting behavior, and then explored the main effects of the farmers’ corn planting behavior in the third year of the implementation of the price-compensation separation policy. This paper took corn farmers in Jilin province as the research object, based on macro and micro data, and used a multivariate Logistic model to analyze the relationship between farmers' corn planting behavior and policies. The price-compensation separation policy had changed the corn planting behavior of farmers in Jilin province. When corn prices decreased due to the implementation of the price-compensation separation policy, farmers would seek other crops with higher returns per unit area and adjusted their planting behavior. The issuance of corn producer subsidies has a guiding effect on the adjustment of farmers' corn planting behavior. The different planting behavior responses of farmers in the predominant corn production areas and non-dominant production areas regarding the price-compensation separation policy validated the effect of the price-compensation separation policy in ensuring food security while reducing corn planting in non-dominant corn production areas. At the same time, during the implementation of the policy, there are problems of poor understanding and lagging of farmers. Therefore, suggestions are made from improving the price-compensation separation policy and increasing farmers’ awareness of the policy to better realize the stability of farmers while adjusting the corn planting structure.