新型城镇化对农民收入的影响效应研究基于30个省（市、自治区）面板数据的实证分析

STUDY ON THE EFFECT OF NEW URBANIZATION ON FARMERS' INCOMEEMPIRICAL ANALYSIS BASED ON PANEL DATA OF 30 PROVINCES（CITIES AND AUTONOMOUS REGION）

关键词:  新型城镇化  农民收入  影响效应  空间杜宾模型  建议

Key words:  new urbanization  farmers' income  effect  spatial Dobin model  suggestion

摘要:

目的 通过人口的城镇化率、土地的城镇化率、经济的城镇化率、就业的城镇化率这4个自变量综合考察新型城镇化对农民收入的直接影响效应和间接影响效应并提出推进新型城镇化建设促进农民增收的建议。方法 文章运用空间杜宾模型，收集近10年我国30个省（市、自治区，不含港澳台、西藏）的相关数据分析新型城镇化对农民收入的影响。结果 新型城镇化通过人口的城镇化、土地的城镇化、经济的城镇化对农民收入产生显著正向的直接效应，且通过经济的城镇化产生显著负向的间接效应，而就业的城镇化对农民收入影响效应不显著；新型城镇化对农民收入的直接效应主要还是由人口的城镇化产生，但也不能忽视土地城镇化和经济城镇化促进农民增收的作用；控制变量中农业经济水平、农村资本投入、对外开放程度、工业化率对农民收入具有显著正向的直接效应，且农村资本投入对农民收入具有显著正向的间接效应。结论 建议政府大力发展农业现代化，促进城乡一体化；盘活农村土地资源，加快农村城镇化；拓宽农民就业渠道，缩小城乡差别。

Abstract:

This study is intends to provide a comprehensive investigation on the direct and indirect effects of new urbanization on farmers' income through four independent variables: the ratio of population urbanization, the ratio of land urbanization, the ratio of economy urbanization and the ratio of employment urbanization, and it puts forward some suggestions for promoting the construction of the new urbanization to increase the income of farmers. The spatial Dobin model was used to analyze the effect of new urbanization on farmers' income after collecting relevant data of 30 provinces (cities and autonomous regions) in recent 10 years. The result showed that new urbanization had a significant positive direct effect on farmers' income through population urbanization, land urbanization and economic urbanization, and a significant negative indirect effect through economic urbanization. But employment urbanization had no significant effect on farmers' income; the direct effect of new urbanization on farmers' income was mainly caused by population urbanization, but we could't ignore the effect of land urbanization and economic urbanization on promoting farmers' income; in the control variables, agricultural economic level, rural capital investment, the degree of opening to the outside world, and the industrialization rate had a significant positive direct effect on farmers' income, and rural capital investment had a significant positive indirect effect on farmers' income. So it is suggested that the government should vigorously develop agricultural modernization to promote the integration of urban and rural areas, vitalize rural land resources and accelerate rural urbanization, broaden the employment channels of farmers and narrow the differences between urban and rural areas.