中国柑橘生产布局变迁驱动机制研究——基于农户决策视角

RESEARCH ON THE DRIVING MECHANISM OF THE CHANGE OF CITRUS PRODUCTION LAYOUT IN CHINA * ——BASED ON FARMERS' DECISION-MAKING PERSPECTIVE

关键词:  柑橘  生产布局  农户决策  Nerlove模型  西移内扩

Key words:  citrus  planting layout  farmer decision making  Nerlove model  westward, internally expansion

摘要:

目的 从农户决策视角研究柑橘生产布局变迁机制对优化我国柑橘生产布局、解决柑橘“卖难”问题具有重要意义。方法 文章借助Nerlove模型推导出果农种植行为对上期种植面积、上期价格、上期成本的响应函数；基于该响应函数，运用1985―2018年柑橘主产省数据构建面板模型从微观视角探讨我国柑橘农户种植决策影响因素，藉以从宏观视角分析我国柑橘生产布局变迁的驱动机制。结果 （1）浙—闽—粤地区种植面积显著减少，赣南—湘南—桂北和鄂西种植面积快速增加，长江中游种植面积缓慢增加，柑橘种植呈“西移内扩”布局；（2）劳动力成本、非农就业机会、工资性收入水平是决定柑橘生产布局的关键因素；（3）浙—闽—粤地区较高的人工成本、非农就业机会和工资性收入水平导致果农种植积极性不高，而赣—南—湘南—桂北、鄂西地区较低的人工成本、非农就业机会和工资性收入水平导致果农种植积极性较高。结论 优化柑橘种植布局，需要考虑劳动力成本、非农就业机会、工资性收入水平对柑橘种植的影响及区域差异。

Abstract:

It is important to study the change mechanism of layout of citrus planting for optimization the layout of citrus planting in China and solving the problem of "difficulties in selling citrus "from the perspective of farmers' decision-making. A Nerlove model was used to derive the response function of planting behavior of the citrus farmers to the planting area, last price and last cost. Based on the response function, the datum of major provinces of citrus planting from 1985 to 2018 were used to construct a panel model to study the influencing factors on planting decision of citrus farmers in China from a microscopic angle on which analyze the driving mechanism of layout change of citrus planting in China from a macro angle. The results showed that: (1) The planting area in Zhejiang-Fujian-Guangdong area was significantly reducing, while that was increasing rapidly in South Jiangxi-South Hunan-North Guangxi and west Hubei area, and increasing slowly in middle reaches of Yangtze River, that was, the citrus planting showed a “westward, internally expansion” layout; (2) Labor cost, opportunities and wage income of non-agricultural employment were key factors which determined the layout of citrus planting; (3) Higher labor costs, more opportunities and wage income of non-agricultural employment lowered the enthusiasm of citrus planting in Zhejiang-Fujian-Guangdong area, while the lower labor costs, less opportunities and wage income of non-agricultural employment heightened the enthusiasm of citrus planting in South Jiangxi-South Hunan-North Guangxi and west Hubei area. Therefore, optimizing the layout of citrus planting should consider the regional differences in the influence of labor costs, non-agricultural employment opportunities, and wage income on citrus planting.