农地流转风险形成机制及评价——以广东省为例

THE RISK FORMATION MECHANISM AND ASSESSMENT OF FARMLAND TRANSFER *——A CASE STUDY OF GUANGDONG PROVINCE

关键词:  农地流转  风险机制  熵权法  风险评价  莫兰指数

Key words:  farmland transfer  risk formation mechanism  entropy weight method  risk assessment  Moran's Index

摘要:

目的 厘清农地流转风险形成机制，构建农地流转风险评估体系，量化评价农地流转风险，以便为农地流转风险防范和治理提供依据。方法 文章采用熵权法和莫兰指数对广东省21个地市的农地流转风险及其空间特征进行了定量评价和分析。结果 （1）信息不对称、道德风险及村集体强制介入是农地流转过程中农民权益受损的关键；（2）社会保障风险、自然灾害风险及社会稳定风险是当前广东省农地流转面临的主要风险；（3）广东省农地流转风险区域差异显著，全局莫兰指数为-0.03，空间上未呈明显集聚特征；（4）广东省各地市农地流转非粮化倾向高度趋同，值得警惕。结论 在当前中国农村社会保障制度仍不健全背景下，尊重农民意愿，审慎推进农地流转才是明智之举；法律和制度的完善、农业基础设施的加强、流转服务水平的提高，农业金融的支持以及粮食补贴政策的正向激励应是当前广东省实施差异化农地流转风险治理的政策支点。

Abstract:

This research is intended to clarify the formation mechanism of farmland transfer risk, establish farmland transfer risk assessment system, and quantitatively assess farmland transfer risk in the case area, so as to provide guidance for risk prevention and governance in rural China. We analyzed the farmland transfer risk and its spatial features by entropy weight method and Moran's Index at the prefecture-level city scale in Guangdong province. The results showed that: (1) The information asymmetry, moral hazard and mandatory intervention by village collective were the key factors that farmers' rights and interests were infringed during farmland transfer. (2) Social security risk, natural disaster risk, and social stability risk were the major risks in Guangdong province at present. The food security risk should not be ignored as well. (3) The regional difference of the risk of farmland transfer in Guangdong province was significant. However, there was no obvious agglomeration characteristics in space from the result of Moran's Index value (-0.03). (4) It was worthy of paying attention that transferred farmlands were almost used for purposes other than grain production in Guangdong province. Finally, we have the conclusion that the government should be cautious about promoting farmland transfer before China's rural social security system is relatively perfect. Moreover, in order to make effective risk governance for farmland transfer, the government should promote laws to protect farmers' legal rights, increase agricultural infrastructural investment, make better services for farmers, enhance financial support for agriculture, and increase subsidies for grain farmers in Guangdong province.