基于情景分析的烟草种植替代综合效应研究

COMPERHENSIVE EFFECTS OF TOBACCO CROP SUBSTITUTION BASED ON SCENARIO ANALYSIS*

关键词:  烟草种植替代  成本收益分析  环境风险指数  情景分析  综合评价

Key words:  tobacco crop substitution  cost-benefit analysis  environmental risk index  scenario analysis  comprehensive evaluation

摘要:

目的 烟草种植替代是从源头控制烟草消费的最有效措施，但在我国还未全面实施。文章分析研究不同情境下烟草种植替代可能产生的综合效应，以期推动我国烟草种植替代的实施。方法 基于2018年湖北省利川市11种作物的成本收益、化肥使用量等数据，利用情景分析法，结合环境风险指数法和综合评价法对烟草种植替代可能产生的综合效应进行分析。结果 （1）种植烟草高昂的人工成本使得其净利润为负，且在11种作物中最低，其现金收益仅高于粮食与油料作物，种植番茄或黄瓜的现金收益分别比烟草高7倍和6倍，烟草较高的价格可能是吸引农户种植的主要原因之一；（2）情景1种植烟草的氮肥使用环境风险较低，磷肥与钾肥使用的环境风险等级较高；情景2种植粮食作物可以减少化肥使用的环境风险，种植蔬菜等作物会增加化肥使用的环境风险；（3）在该文的3种情景中，粮食作物的固碳能力较强，经济作物的固碳能力较弱；种植烟草的固碳能力最弱，其综合效应仅优于油菜籽与烟草的组合，远低于种植蔬菜或烟草与蔬菜作物组合种植的综合效应。结论 利川市可以选择番茄、黄瓜等蔬菜作物或是这些作物与烟草共同种植的方案来代替烟草种植，在履行《烟草控制框架公约》的同时能够获得更好的综合效应。该文的研究结果可以为推动我国烟草种植替代的实施提供科学依据。

Abstract:

Tobacco crop substitution is the most effective measure to control tobacco consumption from the source, but it has not been fully implemented in China. This paper analyzes the possible comprehensive effects of tobacco crop substitution in different scenarios in order to promote the implementation of tobacco crop substitution in China. Based on the data of cost, revenue and fertilizer usage of 11 crops in Lichuan city of Hubei province in 2018, the comprehensive effects of tobacco crop substitution were analyzed by using scenario analysis, environmental risk index and comprehensive evaluation methods. The results were listed as follows. (1) The high labor cost of tobacco planting resulted in a negative net profit, which was the lowest among 11 crops. Its cash income was only higher than that of grain and oil crops. The cash income of planting tomatoes and cucumbers was 7 times and 6 times higher than that of tobacco planting, respectively. The price of tobacco was the highest among all crops, which may be one of the main reasons to attract farmers to plant tobacco. (2) In scenario 1, the environmental risk level of the use of nitrogen fertilizer for tobacco planting was relatively low, while the environmental risk level of the use of phosphorus fertilizer and potassium fertilizer for tobacco planting was high. In scenario 2, planting food crops could reduce the environmental risk of chemical fertilizer use, while planting vegetables and other crops would increase the environmental risk of chemical fertilizer use; (3) In the three scenarios of this study, the carbon sequestration ability of grain crops was strong and that of cash crops was weak. Planting tobacco had the weakest carbon sequestration ability, and its comprehensive effects were only better than the combination of rapeseed and tobacco, far lower than the comprehensive effects of planting vegetables or the combination of tobacco and vegetable crops. In summary, Lichuan city can choose tomato, cucumber and other vegetable crops or the scheme of planting these crops with tobacco to replace tobacco planting, which can obtain better comprehensive effects while fulfilling the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. The results of this paper can provide a scientific basis for promoting the implementation of tobacco crop substitution in China.