农业产出增长的结构分解及与服务业融合发展研究

RESEARCH ON THE STRUCTURAL DECOMPOSITION OF AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT GROWTH AND ITS INTEGRATION WITH SERVICE INDUSTRY

关键词:  农业产出  结构分解  归因矩阵  产业融合  投入产出分析

Key words:  agricultural output  structural decomposition  attribution matrix  industrial integration  input output analysis

摘要:

目的 在加快推进农业现代化的背景下，研究农业产出增长分解及其与服务业产业融合，对深入推进农业结构性改革以及加快培育农业农村发展新动能具有重要意义。方法 文章以2007年、2012年和2017年中国地区投入产出表中数据为研究样本，通过核密度分析、结构分解分析与归因矩阵分析，考察农业产出的动态变迁，分解产出增长的主要因素，量化农业与服务业产业融合状况。结果 （1）我国农业整体呈现产出增长与区域布局调整的动态趋势，农业产出增长的主要动力由各省份的内部需求扩张效应转变为国内需求扩张效应；（2）技术水平变化对西部省份农业产出的增长作用显著；（3）出口扩张效应并不显著，最终产品与中间产品的外部流入对我国农业增长的挤出作用扩大；（4）农业与服务业产业融合主要体现在需求侧融合，仍需加强农业与服务业供给侧融合。结论 促进农业供给适应需求变化，进一步优化农业区域布局，加快发展农业生产性服务业，塑造参与农业国际合作竞争新优势。

Abstract:

Under the background of accelerating agricultural modernization, studying the decomposition of agricultural output growth and its integration with service industry is of great significance to further promote agricultural structural reform and accelerate the cultivation of new driving forces for agricultural and rural development. Taking the data in China's regional input-output tables in 2007, 2012 and 2017 as research samples, through nuclear density analysis, structural decomposition analysis and attribution matrix analysis, this paper investigated the dynamic changes of agricultural output, decomposed the main factors of output growth, and quantified the integration of agriculture and service industry. The results showed that: (1) China's agriculture as a whole showed a dynamic trend of output growth and regional layout adjustment. The main driving force of agricultural output growth changes from the internal demand expansion effect of provinces to the domestic demand expansion effect; (2) The change of technology level had a significant effect on the growth of agricultural output in western provinces; (3) The effect of export expansion was not significant, and the external inflow of final products and intermediate products had expanded the crowding out effect on China's agricultural growth; (4) The integration of agriculture and service industry was mainly reflected in the demand side integration, and the supply side integration of agriculture and service industry still needed to be strengthened. The conclusions are listed as follows. Promoting agricultural supply to adapt to demand changes, further optimizing agricultural regional layout, accelerating the development of agricultural producer services, and shaping new advantages in participating in agricultural international cooperation and competition.