长江流域农业生态经济系统耦合协调关系评价及其差异化分析

EVALUATION AND ITS DIFFERENTIATION ANALYSIS OF THE COUPLING COORDINATION RELATION OF AGRICULTURAL ECOLOGY AND ECONOMY SYSTEM IN THE YANGTZE RIVER BASIN

关键词:  农业生态经济系统  CRITIC—熵权组合权重法  综合发展水平  耦合协调度  Dagum基尼系数法

Key words:  agro-eco-economic system  combined weight method of CRITIC-ENTROPY weight  comprehensive development level  coupling coordination degree  Dagum Gini coefficient

摘要:

目的 考察长江流域农业生态经济系统耦合协调发展水平及其差异化特征，对实现长江流域乃至全国农业农村现代化都具有重要的意义。方法 文章基于2004—2018年长江流域省级面板数据，分别构建了农业生态经济系统综合评价指标体系，采用CRITIC—熵权组合权重法测算两者的综合发展水平，结合耦合协调度模型和Dagum基尼系数法，对两者耦合协调发展水平及其差异特征进行系统性分析。结果 （1）2004—2018年长江流域农业生态经济系统综合发展水平均呈上升态势，但农业经济系统发展较为滞后，且两者在总体上、区域间、省份间各有差异。（2）长江流域农业生态经济系统具有高度耦合特征，且耦合度呈现波动上升趋势，但不同区域表现有所差别。（3）长江流域农业生态经济系统的协调发展水平整体上呈阶梯式上升，协调等级常年稳定在初级协调状态，且中游相较于上、下游协调发展水平更好，区域内差异更小。（4）长江流域农业生态经济系统耦合协调发展水平总体差异呈现出波动走势，且基尼系数有扩大趋势，超变密度贡献率均值最大，但在考察期内，区域间差异与超变密度轮换构成影响长江流域农业生态经济系统协调发展水平差异的主要因素。结论 应加快现代农业发展步伐，提高农业经济效益，突破区域发展壁垒，推动农业资源要素在自由流动，激发区域农业生态经济协同发展新动能，进一步缩小农业生态经济协调发展水平的区域间差异。

Abstract:

It is of great significance for realizing the modernization of agriculture and rural areas in the Yangtze River Basin and even the whole country to investigate the coupling and coordinated development level and differentiation characteristics of the agro-eco-economic system in the Yangtze River Basin.Based on the provincial panel data of the Yangtze River Basin from 2004 to 2018, the comprehensive evaluation index system of agro-eco-economic system was constructed，and the combined weight method of CRITIC-ENTROPY weight was adopted to measure the comprehensive development level of the two systems. Combined with the coupling coordination degree model and Dagum Gini coefficient method, the development level of coupling coordination and their differences were systematically analyzed. The results showed that the comprehensive development level of agricultural eco-economic system in the Yangtze River Basin was increasing from 2004 to 2018, but the development of agricultural economic system was lagging behind, and there were differences between the regions and provinces. The agricultural eco-economic system in the Yangtze River Basin was highly coupled, and the coupling degree showd a trend of fluctuation, but there were differences in different regions. Meanwhile, the coordinated development level of the agricultural eco-economic system in the Yangtze River Basin rose step by step on the whole, and the coordination level was stable in the primary coordination state perennially. The coordinated development level of the middle reaches was better than that of the upper and lower reaches, and the regional differences were smaller. However, the overall difference of the coupling and coordinated development level of the agro-eco-economic system in the Yangtze River Basin showed a fluctuating trend, and the Gini coefficient had an expanding trend, and the average contribution rate of super-variable density was the largest. But the inter-regional difference and super-variable density rotation were the main factors affecting the coordinated development level difference of the agro-eco-economic system in the Yangtze River Basin during the study period. Therefore, It is necessary to accelerate the development of modern agriculture, improve agricultural economic benefits, break through regional development barriers, promote the free flow of agricultural resource elements, stimulate the new driving force of regional agroecological economic coordinated development, and further reduce the regional differences in the level of coordinated development of agroecological economy.