京津冀粮食安全与农业用水安全耦合协调研究

COUPLING COORDINATION OF FOOD SECURITY AND AGRICUITURAL WATER SECURITY IN BEIJING-TIANJIN-HEBEI REGION

关键词:  粮食安全  农业用水安全  耦合协调  可持续发展  京津冀

Key words:  food security  agricultural water security  coupling coordination  sustainable development  Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

摘要:

目的 粮食安全与农业用水安全协调发展是实现农业可持续发展的前提与保障。方法 文章通过构建粮食安全与农业用水安全评价指标体系，基于耦合协调模型、空间自相关、GWR模型，分析1985—2018年京津冀粮食安全与农业用水安全耦合协调度时空格局及驱动力。结果 （1）粮食安全与农业用水安全评价指数及二者综合评价指数均呈波动上升趋势；（2）时间上，两者始终处于高耦合水平，耦合协调度呈波动上升趋势，协调程度整体较低，没有达到高度协调；空间上，各县域基本都为高耦合水平，耦合协调度冀中南功能拓展区高、冀西北生态涵养区低，整体处于濒临失调和基本协调之间；（3）耦合协调度空间集聚特征显著，中南部高―高集聚，西北部低―低集聚；（4）耦合协调度驱动力中，农业人口占比、高程和坡度主要为负向作用，农业产值占比、人均耕地面积、粮食单产、有效灌溉率及节水灌溉率主要起正向作用；高程、坡度、农业人口占比及粮食单产的影响较小，人均耕地面积、有效灌溉率、节水灌溉率及农业产值占比的影响程度大，其中人均耕地面积影响更显著。结论 该文表明京津冀粮食安全与农业用水安全耦合协调关系有待进一步提升，各功能区内耦合协调关系发展差距较大，未来应在考虑不同地区实际差异基础上，因地制宜采取措施以缓解水粮矛盾问题。

Abstract:

The coordinated development of food security and agricultural water security is the premise and guarantee for the sustainable development of agriculture. Based on the coupling coordination model, spatial autocorrelation and GWR model, the spatial-temporal pattern and driving forces of coupling coordination degree between food security and agricultural water security in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1985 to 2018 were analyzed by constructing an evaluation index. The results showed that: (1) Both the separate and comprehensive evaluation index of food security and agricultural water security showed a fluctuating upward trend. (2) From the perspective of time, the evaluation index of food security and agricultural water security had always been at a high coupling level, and the coupling coordination degree had shown a fluctuating upward trend. The overall coordination degree was low and had not reached a high degree of coordination. From the spatial perspective, the coupling degree of each county was basically at a high level, and the coupling coordination degree of central and southern Hebei functional expansion area was high, while that of northwest Hebei ecological conservation area was low, and the overall level somewhere was between near imbalance and basic coordination. (3) The spatial agglomeration characteristics of coupling coordination degree were significant, with high-high concentration in central and southern China and low-low concentration in northwest China. (4) Among the driving forces of coupling coordination degree, the proportion of agricultural population, elevation, and slope were mainly negative, while the proportion of agricultural output value, per capita cultivated land area, grain yield per unit area, effective irrigation rate, and water-saving irrigation rate were mainly positive. The influence of elevation, slope, proportion of agricultural population, and grain yield per unit area was small, while the per capita cultivated land area, effective irrigation rate, water-saving irrigation rate, and proportion of agricultural output value had a large influence, among which the per capita cultivated land area had a more significant effect. In summary, the article shows that the coupling coordination relationship between food security and agricultural water security in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region needs to be further improved, and there is a large development gap in the coupling coordination relationship in each functional area. In the future, measures should be taken according to local conditions to alleviate the contradiction between food and water based on the actual differences between different regions.