社会经济因素对农户种植决策行为的影响——基于主体模型的像元尺度模拟

INFLUENCE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC FACTORS ON FARMERS' PLANTING DECISION BEHAVIOR——PIXEL-SCALE SIMULATION WITH THE AGENT-BASED MODEL

关键词:  种植结构  农户种植决策行为  基于主体模型  社会规范  作物分布格局模拟

Key words:  planting structure  farmers' planting decision behavior  agent-based model  social norm  crop distribution pattern simulation

摘要:

目的 保证粮食安全关乎国计民生和社会稳定。合理调控种植结构，优化粮食配比和产量，对于稳定粮食安全有着举足轻重的作用。目前，以大豆为主的油料作物多依赖进口，严重威胁我国的粮食安全，为了优化种植结构，提升油料作物自给率，对农户种植决策行为的研究十分必要，具有科学价值和政策意义。方法 文章选取黑龙江省松嫩平原粮食主产区的主粮种植结构为研究对象，通过农户问卷调查并结合社会经济统计数据以及作物空间分布数据，采用基于主体模型（Agent-based Model，简称ABM模型）模拟了2016—2020年农户作物种植（大豆、水稻、玉米）的决策行为以及作物空间分布格局。结果 ABM模型模拟的平均总体精度为63%，结果显示种植决策行为与社会规范因素较为相关，例如：农户所处周边社会环境中大多数人种植水稻，该农户有较高的概率选择种植水稻；经济因素也是重要的影响因素，例如：水稻种植收益高则更多人种水稻。根据ABM模型的情景分析结果显示，农户受周围农户种植决策影响程度越高，越倾向于选择周围农户的种植结构；而当大豆补贴金额变化时，农户更倾向于选择种植收入较高的种植结构。结论 该研究构建的基于农户决策行为的ABM模型可以为其他区域的农户种植决策行为模拟提供方法借鉴，以期针对性地提出益于该地的政策性建议，保证粮食安全和社会稳定。

Abstract:

Food security is one of the major challenges facing by human society, and it is also an important agenda of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Ensuring food security is related to the national economy, people's livelihood, and social stability. Reasonable regulation of planting structure, optimization of grain ratio and output play a decisive role in stabilizing food security. Farmers' planting decision behavior is the main factor affecting the planting structure of staple grains. At present, the self-sufficiency rate of oil crops is low, especially the self-sufficiency of soybean. To optimize the planting structure, it is necessary to quantitatively evaluate the farmers' planting decision behavior and its impact. This paper took the major food production region Songnen Plain in Heilongjiang province as the research area. By integrating farmer household survey data, socio-economic statistics, and land use data, we used an agent-based model to simulate farmers' planting decision behavior and the spatial distribution pattern of crops from 2016 to 2020, with the simulation average overall accuracy of 63%. The results showed that planting decision behavior was strongly related to social norms. For example, if most of the farmers in the society of planting rice, the farmer would also choose to plant rice. Another significant factor was economic factors, such as planting net income. According to the prediction of the ABM model, the higher the degree of influence of farmers on the planting decisions of surrounding farmers, the more inclined they were to choose the planting structure of the surrounding farmers; and when the amount of soybean subsidy changed, farmers were more inclined to choose the planting structure with higher planting income. Therefore, the analysis provides method reference for the simulation of farmers' planting decision behavior in other regions, so as to put forward targeted policy suggestions, and ensure food security and social stability.