首轮退耕补贴到期对农户退耕地利用意愿影响研究——基于农户主观福利的中介检验

ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF THE EXPIRY OF THE FIRST ROUND OF FARMLAND RETURN SUBSIDY ON FARMERS’ WILLINGNESS TO USE SLCP LAND*——MEDIATION TEST ON FARMERS’ SUBJECTIVE WELL-BEING

关键词:  土地管理  退耕还林  中介模型  主观福利  退耕地利用意愿

Key words:  land use  SLCP  mediation model  subjective well-being  willingness to use SLCP land

摘要:

目的 考察退耕补贴到期对农户退耕地利用意愿的影响以及主观福利的中介效应，为巩固退耕还林成果、推动退耕还林高质量发展提供决策参考。方法 文章基于河北省473户参与首轮退耕的农户数据，构建类别变量中介模型，实证检验退耕补贴到期对农户退耕地利用意愿的影响，并进一步探究主观福利是否在退耕补贴到期影响农户退耕地利用意愿的关系中具有中介效应。结果 （1）退耕补贴到期会增强农户对退耕地的复耕、换树种和流转意愿，降低农户的管护意愿；（2）退耕补贴到期会造成农户主观福利的下降；（3）主观福利在退耕补贴到期与农户退耕地管护、复耕和换树种意愿的关系中具有中介效应。结论 政府应及时出台退耕还林后续相关政策，提升农户主观福利水平，并加强退耕地流转机制建设，从而保障退耕还林成果的可持续性，实现退耕还林的高质量发展。

Abstract:

This paper investigates the impact of the expiry of farmland return subsidy on farmers' willingness of utilizing land within sloping land conversion program (SLCP), and the mediating effect of subjective well-being, so as to provide the decision-making reference for consolidating SLCP' s achievements and promoting SLCP' s sustainable operation. Based on the data from 473 first-round SLCP participators, the mediation model with categorical variables was used to systematically investigate the relationships among the expiry of farmland return subsidy, subjective well-being, and willingness of utilizing land within SLCP. Our results showed that: (1) The expiry of farmland return subsidy increased farmers' willingness of re-plowing, replacing tree species, and transferring SLCP land. Meanwhile, the expiry reduced farmers' willingness of protecting SLCP land; (2) The expiry of farmland return subsidy reduced farmers' subjective well-being;(3) Subjective well-being had mediating effect on the relationship between the expiry of farmland return subsidy and farmers' land protection, re-plowing and tree-species replacement willingness of SLCP land. In conclusion, the government should timely make follow-up SLCP policies, improve farmers' subjective well-being, and strengthen the construction of the SLCP land transfer mechanism, so as to secure the sustainability of SLCP' s achievements and realize a high-quality development of SLCP.