收入不确定性对节水技术采用动态决策的影响研究——来自政府推广模式的调节

STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF INCOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE DYNAMIC DECISION OF WATER-SAVING TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION——ADJUSTMENT FROM THE GOVERNMENT PROMOTION FORMS

关键词:  收入不确定性  政府推广  节水技术  持续采用  调节效应

Key words:  income uncertainty  government promotion  water-saving technologies  continuous adoption  moderating effect

摘要:

目的 农户节水技术采用的长效机制对保障长期粮食安全、促进农业可持续发展具有重要意义。方法 文章基于粮食主产区微观调研数据，衡量农户家庭收入风险，运用Heckman样本选择模型实证分析收入不确定性对农户节水技术初步采用与持续采用行为决策的影响，进一步考察不同政府推广模式在其中的调节效应。结果 收入不确定性增加会降低农户持续采用节水技术的意愿，不利于节水技术的长期应用，政府推广对农户节水技术持续采用行为具有正向激励作用；从调节效应来看，收入不确定性对农户节水技术持续采用的负向影响可通过政府补贴和技术培训的调节缓解，其中以灌溉基础设施补贴为典型的政府节水补贴发挥了积极作用。结论 要降低农村居民家庭收入风险，保持农业政策的延续性和稳定性，加强节水教育和技术培训，同时完善配套服务体系，推动农业生产长效节水。

Abstract:

It is of great significance to explore an enduring effect mechanism for farmers to adopt water-saving technologies to ensure long-term food security and promote high-quality agricultural development. Based on the micro-survey data of major grain producing areas, we measured the income risk of farmers and used the Heckman sample selection model to empirically analyze the impact of income uncertainty on farmers' decision-making of initial and continuous adoption of water-saving technologies, and further investigated the moderating effect of different government promotion forms. The results were indicated as follows. The increase of income uncertainty reduced the willingness of farmers to continue to use water-saving technologies, which was not conducive to the long-term application of water-saving technologies. Government promotion had a positive incentive effect on farmers' sustainable adoption of water-saving technologies. From the perspective of moderating effect, the negative impact of income uncertainty on farmers' sustainable adoption of water-saving technologies could be alleviated through government subsidies and technical training. Among them, the typical government water-saving subsidies such as irrigation infrastructure subsidies played a positive role. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce the risk of household income of rural residents, maintain the continuity and stability of agricultural water-saving subsidy policy, strengthen water-saving education and technical training, improve the supporting service system, and promote long-term water-saving in agricultural production.