中国肉牛养殖生产布局的阶段特征、变迁路径和影响机制——基于2008—2019年省域统计数据的空间计量分析

STAGE CHARACTERISTICS, CHANGING PATH AND INFLUENCING MECHANISM OF CHINA’S BEEF CATTLE PRODUCTION LAYOUT

关键词:  肉牛养殖  育肥养殖  生产布局  重心轨迹  空间计量

Key words:  beef cattle breeding  fattening breeding  production layout  migration trajectory of production gravity center  spatial measurement

摘要:

目的 为充分了解“十一五”“十二五”“十三五”期间中国肉牛养殖及育肥养殖生产布局的阶段特征、变迁路径和影响机制。方法 文章运用2008—2019年中国各地肉牛年末存栏量和牛肉产量数据，利用生产集中度、生产重心迁移轨迹阐述生产布局的阶段特征和变迁路径，利用莫兰指数、吉尔里指数和G指数分析空间相关性，利用空间面板模型分析影响因素及效应。结果 肉牛养殖生产重心向西北方迁移了154.6km，自2017年空间正相关逐渐显著，粗饲料资源禀赋、劳动力质量、技术进步和非农就业机会是布局变迁的重要影响因素；肉牛育肥养殖生产重心向西迁移了119.15km，三大指数均具有显著性，饲料资源禀赋、劳动力质量、技术进步、市场价格、交通通达度、畜牧产业比较优势和非农就业机会是布局变迁的重要影响因素。结论 肉牛养殖和育肥养殖均呈现出由农区向牧区迁移趋势，且存在空间正相关性，但具体变迁路径和影响机制有所差异，就此提出“合理编制肉牛生产规划、系统加强流通环节建设、强化科学技术支撑、保障饲料稳定供应”的政策建议。

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to understand the stage characteristics, change path and influence mechanism of China's beef cattle breeding and fattening production layout from the 11th Five-Year Plan period to the 13th Five-Year Plan period. Based on the panel data of beef cattle inventory and beef production in China from 2008 to 2019, this paper expounded the stage characteristics and change path of production layout by using the theory of production concentration and production center of gravity, analyzed the spatial correlation by using Moran index, Gilri index and G index, and summarized the influence mechanism by using spatial panel model. The results showed that the production center of beef cattle farming moved 154.6 km to the northwest, and the spatial positive correlation had gradually emerged since 2017. The resource endowment of roughage, labor quality, technological progress, and non-agricultural employment opportunities were important influencing factors of layout migration. The production center of beef cattle fattening moved 119.15 km westward, and the three indexes had obvious aboriginality. Feed resource endowment, labor quality, technological progress, market price, traffic accessibility, comparative advantage of animal husbandry industry and non-agricultural employment opportunities were important influencing factors of layout migration. Overall, beef cattle farming and fattening farming shows a trend of migration from agricultural areas to pastoral areas, but the specific change path and influence mechanism are different. This paper put forward the policy suggestions of making beef cattle production planning, systematically strengthening the construction of circulation links, effectively strengthening the support of science and technology, and continuously ensuring the stable supply of feed.