我国农业农村现代化水平的时空特征及障碍因子研究

RESEARCH ON THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL CHARACTERISTICS AND OBSTACLE FACTORS OF THE MODERNIZATION LEVEL OF MY COUNTRY’S REGIONAL AGRICULTURE AND RURAL AREAS

关键词:  农业农村现代化  评价指标系统  多指标综合测度  空间自相关分析  障碍因子测度模型

Key words:  agricultural and rural modernization  evaluation index system  comprehensive measurement of multiple indicators  spatial autocorrelation analysis  barrier factor measurement model

摘要:

目的 推进农业农村现代化发展是“十四五”期间关于“三农”工作的重大战略安排，构建农业农村现代化发展水平评价体系以分析我国农业农村现代化发展的区域差异与制约因素，对于引导农业农村现代化发展方向和决策部署具有重要意义。方法 文章借助多指标综合测度法、空间自相关分析法以及障碍因子测度模型，在测算评估2010—2020年我国区域农业农村现代化发展水平的基础上，阐明农业农村现代化发展的时空特征并划分不同发展类型，分析影响农业农村现代化发展的障碍因子。结果 （1）整体来看，我国农业农村现代化水平逐年攀升；（2）从系统层指标分析，农业现代化发展综合指数较高，但农业农村现代化发展水平的提升更多依赖于农村现代化发展拉动；（3）从空间视角来看，多数省份之间农业农村现代化发展水平呈现明显的正向空间相关性，在显著区域内以“高—高”“低—低”空间集聚为主；（4）从障碍因素角度分析，农业生产现代化与农村文化医疗现代化是农业农村现代化水平提升的最大桎梏。结论 实现农业农村现代化发展要立足我国农业发展新征程的现实逻辑，坚持农业农村优先发展的战略总方针，提高农村医疗文化水平，深化农业农村改革，加快推进农业一二三产业高质量融合发展。

Abstract:

Promoting the development of agricultural and rural modernization is a major strategic arrangement for the work of agriculture, rural areas and farmers during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. To build an evaluation system for the development level of agricultural and rural modernization to analyze the regional differences and restrictive factors of my country's agricultural and rural modernization development is of great significance for guiding the direction and decision-making deployment of agricultural and rural modernization development. With the help of multi-index comprehensive measurement method, spatial autocorrelation analysis method and obstacle factor measurement model, and on the basis of measuring and evaluating the development level of my country's regional agricultural and rural modernization from 2010 to 2020, the temporal and spatial characteristics of agricultural and rural modernization development were clarified and divided into different types, and the obstacle factors that affected the development of agricultural and rural modernization were analyzed. The results were listed as follows. (1) Overall, the level of agricultural and rural modernization in my country was rising year by year; (2) From the analysis of system-level indicators, the comprehensive index of agricultural modernization development was relatively high, but the improvement of agricultural and rural modernization development level was more dependent on the development of rural modernization. (3) From the perspective of space, the level of agricultural and rural modernization development among most provinces showed an obvious positive spatial correlation, and the spatial agglomeration of "high-high" and "low-low" was dominant in significant areas; (4) From the perspective of obstacle factors, the modernization of agricultural production and the modernization of rural culture and medical care were the biggest shackles for the improvement of the modernization level of agriculture and rural areas. Therefore, the realization of agricultural and rural modernization development should be based on the realistic logic of my country's new agricultural development journey, adhere to the strategic general policy of giving priority to agricultural and rural development, improve the level of rural medical culture, deepen agricultural and rural reform, and accelerate the high-quality integration of agricultural primary, secondary and tertiary industries.