中国乳制品供给安全形势分析

ANALYSIS ON THE SUPPLY SECURITY SITUATION OF DAIRY PRODUCTS IN CHINA

关键词:  乳制品  供给安全  形势分析  趋势研判  贸易

Key words:  dairy products  security of supply  situation analysis  tendency judgement  trade

摘要:

目的 在奶业振兴背景下，分析当前我国乳制品供给能力提升与奶源自给率下降等问题，是完善乳制品供给安全的重要保障。方法 文章基于美国农业部、联合国粮农组织、国家统计局、海关总署与《奶业年鉴》等数据，通过分析国内外乳制品生产、消费和贸易格局变化，梳理并分析全球乳制品供需背景下中国乳制品供给安全所面临的挑战。结果 （1）全球原料奶产量增长乏力，国际乳制品供给增长空间有限。（2）我国奶源自给率明显下降，供需缺口进一步扩大。（3）国内乳制品生产与消费结构相对单一，乳制品行业仍具备较大提升空间。（4）乳制品进口贸易对外依赖度加大，进口集中度高，风险分散能力弱。结论 应确立保障我国乳制品供给安全战略导向，优化产需结构；统筹内外发展，平衡乳制品供给对外依存度；完善市场稳定机制，强化风险防控能力；促进奶业技术进步和绿色发展，缓解资源环境约束问题。

Abstract:

Under the background of the revitalization of dairy industry, analyzing the problems of improving the supply ability and decreasing the self-sufficiency rate of milk source is an important guarantee to improve the supply security of dairy products. Based on the data of the United States Department of Agriculture, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations，the National Bureau of Statistics, the General Administration of Customs and the Dairy Industry Yearbook, this paper analyzed the changes of domestic and foreign dairy production, consumption and trade patterns, and sorted out and analyzed the challenges facing the supply security of dairy products in China under the background of global dairy supply and demand. The research found that (1) The growth of global raw milk production was weak, and the international dairy supply growth space was limited; (2) The self-sufficiency rate of milk source in China decreased obviously, and the gap between supply and demand further expanded; (3) The production and consumption structure of domestic dairy products was relatively simple, the dairy industry still had great room for improvement; (4) The external dependence of dairy import trade increased, the import concentration was high, and the risk dispersion ability was weak. Therefore, we should establish strategic guidance to guarantee the safety of Chinese dairy products supply and optimize the production-demand structure, overall plan internal and external development, balance the external dependence of dairy supply, and improve the market stability mechanism, strengthen the ability of risk prevention and control ability, so as to promote the technical progress and green development of dairy industry and alleviate the problem of resource and environmental constraints.