“十三五”时期我国藏粮于地绩效评价

PERFORMANCE EVALUATION ON FOOD CROP PRODUCTION STRATEGY BASED ON FARMLAND MANAGEMENT IN CHINA DURING THE 13TH FIVE YEAR PLAN PERIOD

关键词:  藏粮于地 绩效 经济  社会  生态 库兹涅茨曲线 耦合协调度

Key words:  food crop production strategy based on farmland management  performance  economy, society and ecology  Kuznets Curve  coupling coordination degree

摘要:

目的 构建我国藏粮于地绩效评价体系，分析“十三五”时期我国藏粮于地的成效。方法 文章基于经济—社会—生态分析框架，从数量、质量、技术、安全、结构和环境等方面构建藏粮于地绩效评价指标体系，运用熵值法和TOPSIS法进行综合评价，并进行空间计量分析。结果 （1）“十三五”时期我国藏粮于地绩效整体呈现上升态势。（2）分区域看，黑龙江、山东、河南等主产区藏粮于地绩效较高，但生态效益有待提升；多数地区属于经济—生态效益潜力型和中增长型，未达到库兹涅兹曲线顶点。（3）各地区藏粮于地的经济、社会、生态效益还有较大的提升潜力，耦合协调度不高。结论 “十三五”时期我国藏粮于地成效显著，粮食主产区在稳定藏粮于地经济、社会效益的同时需要提高生态效益；“十四五”时期实施藏粮于地战略要考虑区域差异，并兼顾经济、社会和生态效益的协同发展。

Abstract:

This study aims to construct a performance evaluation system of food crop production strategy based on farmland management in China and analyzes the effectiveness during the 13th Five Year Plan period. Based on the economic social ecological analysis framework, this research constructed a performance evaluation index system from the aspects of quantity, quality, technology, safety, structure and environment, made a comprehensive evaluation by using entropy method and TOPSIS method, then conducted spatial metrological analysis. The results were showed as follows. (1) During the 13th Five Year Plan period, the overall performance of food crop production strategy based on farmland management in China showed an upward trend; (2) Regionally, Heilongjiang, Shandong, Henan and other main producing areas had high performance, but the ecological benefits needed to be improved; most areas belonged to the potential type and medium growth type of economic and ecological benefits, and do not reach the top of the Kuznets curve.(3) There was still great potential to improve the economic, social and ecological benefits in various regions, and poor coupling coordination. In conclusion, during the 13th Five Year Plan period, China's food crop production strategy based on farmland management has achieved remarkable results. The main grain producing areas need to improve the ecological benefits while stabilizing the economic and social benefits of grain storage in the land; during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the implementation of the strategy should consider regional differences and take into account the coordinated development of economic, social and ecological benefits.