农地流转与化肥减量——来自农地流转政策的准自然实验

AGRICULTURAL LAND CIRCULATION AND FERTILIZER REDUCTION——FROM NATURAL EXPERIMENT FROM AGRICULTURAL LAND TRANSFER POLICY

关键词:  农地流转  化肥减量  连续型DID  中介模型  种植结构  经营规模

Key words:  agricultural land circulation  fertilizer reduction  continuous DID  intermediary model  planting structure  production scale

摘要:

目的 推动化肥减量是实现农业可持续发展、绿色发展的必然要求，而农地流转的发展为推动化肥减量提供了新的思路。方法 文章基于2005—2020年中国省级面板数据，运用连续型DID模型、中介模型等考察农地流转政策对化肥减量作用、作用机制以及异质性作用。结果 （1）基准模型估计结果表明，农地流转政策对化肥减量具有显著的促进作用，即农地流转能够促进化肥减量。（2）作用机制分析表明，农地流转政策可以通过调整种植结构和扩大经营规模的渠道对化肥减量起促进作用。（3）异质性分析表明，在自然地理区位维度，农地流转政策对东部和西部地区带来的化肥减量作用更为明显；在粮食生产功能区维度，农地流转政策对非粮食主产区带来的化肥减量作用更为明显；在化肥用量分布维度，对于化肥用量位于0.9分位点的省份，农地流转政策实施带来的化肥减量作用相对较弱。结论 应继续有序推进农地流转，提高农地流转比例；应遏制农地流转“非粮化”，促进农业适度规模经营；应结合各区域经济社会发展，因地制宜的探索农地流转模式。

Abstract:

Promoting the reduction of chemical fertilizer is an inevitable requirement to realize the sustainable and green development of agriculture, and the development of agricultural land circulation provides a new idea to promote the reduction of chemical fertilizer. Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2005 to 2020, the continuous difference-in-difference model and intermediary model were used to investigate the effect, mechanism and heterogeneity of agricultural land transfer policy on fertilizer reduction. The results were showed as follows. (1) The estimation results of the benchmark model showed that the agricultural land transfer policy could significantly promote the reduction of chemical fertilizer, that was, the agricultural land transfer could promote the reduction of chemical fertilizer. (2) The mechanism analysis showed that the agricultural land transfer policy could promote the reduction of chemical fertilizer by adjusting the planting structure and expanding the business scale. (3) The heterogeneity analysis showed that in the dimension of physical geography, the agricultural land transfer policy had a more obvious effect on the reduction of chemical fertilizer in the eastern and western regions; In the dimension of grain production functional area, the effect of agricultural land transfer policy on fertilizer reduction in non grain main production areas was more obvious; In the dimension of fertilizer consumption distribution, for the provinces where the fertilizer consumption was at the 0.9 quantile, the effect of fertilizer reduction brought by the implementation of farmland transfer policy was relatively weak. In this regard, we should continue to orderly promote the transfer of agricultural land and improve the proportion of agricultural land transfer, curb the "non grain" of agricultural land circulation and promote the scale of agriculture, and combine the economic and social development of each region to explore the mode of agricultural land transfer according to local conditions.