“双碳”目标下广东省农业生态效率时空演变及影响因素研究

SPATIO-TEMPORAL EVOLUTION AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF AGRICULTURAL ECO-EFFICIENCY IN GUANGDONG PROVINCE UNDER“DUAL CARBON” TARGET

关键词:  农业生态效率  影响因素  超效率SBM模型  Tobit模型  广东省

Key words:  agricultural eco-efficiency(AEE)  influencing factors  Super-SBM model  Tobit model  Guangdong province

摘要:

目的 农业生态效率与农业现代化、“双碳”目标有着密切关系。通过构建农业生态效率评价指标体系评价广东省农业生态效率。方法 文章运用考虑非期望产出的超效率SBM模型与核密度估计分析2010—2020年广东省农业生态效率时空演进特征，并利用Tobit回归模型探究影响因素。结果 （1）时序演变上，广东省总体上农业生态效率先提升后降低，其中，2010—2016年为波动上升阶段，2016—2020年为波动下降阶段；（2）空间变化上，广东省农业生态效率呈现由区域核心内层向外层阶梯递减的格局，不同等级效率水平差异显著；（3）动态演化上，广东省农业生态效率空间非均衡性特征明显，核密度曲线整体右移并处于“双峰”状态，存在梯度效应并呈两极分化趋势；（4）影响因素中，农业产值比重、化肥使用强度、劳均耕地规模、人均GDP、财政支农水平等因素是对“双碳”目标下广东省农业生态效率时空演变产生影响的主要因素。结论 为提高农业生态效率，在促进农业生产技术进步同时应更加注重农业要素资源合理配置，把握不同区域农业资源特征，制定适宜的农业绿色低碳发展政策。

Abstract:

Agricultural ecological efficiency is closely related to agricultural modernization and the “Dual Carbon” target. This research is intended to construct an evaluation index system, so as to evaluate the agricultural eco-efficiency of Guangdong. Specifically, the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of agricultural eco-efficiency from 2010 to 2020 were analyzed by using the super-efficiency SBM model of undesired output and the kernel density estimation model. The influencing factors of agricultural eco-efficiency were explored by the Tobit regression model. The outcomes were indicated as follows. (1) In terms of temporal evolution, the agricultural eco-efficiency of Guangdong showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. Among them, 2010-2016 was a period of rising fluctuations, and 2016-2020 was a period of declining fluctuations. (2) In terms of spatial evolution, the agricultural eco-efficiency of Guangdong decreased from the inner city to the outer ones, showing ladder-type distributions. (3) In terms of dynamic evolution, there was serious spatial non-equilibrium for the agricultural eco-efficiency in Guangdong. The overall kernel density curve shifted from the left to the right. There was a phenomenon of "double peaks", which showed a gradient effect and a trend of polarization. (4) Several influencing factors played a major role in the spatiotemporal evolution of agricultural eco-efficiency in Guangdong under the "Dual Carbon" target, such as the tertiary industry ratio, fertilizer use intensity, per capita cultivated land, per capita GDP, and fiscal expenditure on agriculture, etc. So, in order to improve agricultural eco-efficiency, we not only promote agricultural production technology, but also make a rational allocation of agricultural resources. Moreover, we should draw up appropriate green low-carbon development policies according to the agricultural features of different regions.