我国肉牛规模化养殖变动趋势及影响因素研究——基基于面板分位数回归的实证分析

STUDY ON THE CHANGING TREND AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF LARGE-SCALE BEEF CATTLE BREEDING IN CHINA*——EMPIRICALANALYSIS BASED ON PANL QUANTILE REGRESSION

关键词:  肉牛养殖  规模化水平  变动趋势  规模结构  面板分位数回归

Key words:  beef cattle breeding  scale level  changing trend  scale structure  panel quantile regression

摘要:

目的 探究我国肉牛规模化养殖变动趋势及影响因素，为推动肉牛规模化养殖、提高牛肉生产能力以确保基本供给提供政策依据。方法 文章基于2007—2020年我国16个肉牛主产省面板数据，首先分析肉牛规模化养殖变动趋势及省际差异，然后采用面板分位数回归模型实证检验肉牛规模化养殖影响因素。结果 （1）我国肉牛规模化养殖水平东北地区相对较高，西南地区最低。（2）省域内饲草料生产能力、固定资产能力、机械化水平、城镇化率和工资性收入水平越高、牛肉消费潜力、政策扶持力度和环境规制强度越大，肉牛养殖规模化水平越高。（3）提高牧草生产能力对促进广西、贵州、云南和四川等西南地区的肉牛规模化养殖更为明显，提高饲料生产能力和牛肉市场消费潜力对促进辽宁、吉林和黑龙江等北方地区的肉牛规模化养殖更为明显。（4）小、中规模肉牛养殖受资源禀赋影响更大，中、大规模肉牛养殖受固定资产投入水平和政策扶持影响更大。结论 发展肉牛规模化养殖需充分考虑区域和规模的差异性，从稳固饲草基础保障、完善肉牛扶持政策和环境规制政策、加强人才队伍建设、提高养殖技术水平、优化养殖规模布局等方面着手，推动肉牛规模化养殖快速发展。

Abstract:

The purpose of this study is to explore the changing trend and influencing factors of large-scale beef cattle breeding in China, and provide policy basis for promoting large-scale beef cattle breeding and improving beef production capacity to ensure basic supply. Based on the panel data of 16 major beef cattle producing provinces in my country from 2007 to 2020, this paper firstly analyzed the changing trend and inter-provincial differences of beef cattle large-scale breeding, and then used the fixed-effect panel quantile regression model to empirically test the influencing factors of beef cattle large-scale breeding. The results were indicated as follows. The scale level of beef cattle in Northeast China was relatively high, and the level in Southwest China was the lowest. The higher the feed production capacity, fixed asset capacity, mechanization level, urbanization rate and wage income level in the province, the greater the beef consumption potential，policy support and the intensity of environmental regulation, and the higher the scale of beef cattle breeding. Improving forage production capacity was more obvious to promote large-scale beef cattle breeding in southwestern regions such as Guangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan, and Sichuan, and improving feed production capacity and beef market consumption potential was more important for promoting large-scale beef cattle breeding in northern regions such as Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang. Small and medium-scale beef cattle breeding was more affected by resource endowment, and medium and large-scale beef cattle breeding was more affected by the level of investment in fixed assets and policy support. Therefore, the development of large-scale beef cattle breeding needs to fully consider the differences in regions and scales, and starts from the aspects of stabilizing the basic guarantee of forage grass, improving beef cattle support policies and environmental regulation policies, strengthening the construction of talent teams, improving the level of breeding technology, and optimizing the layout of aquaculture scale, so as to promote the large-scale beef cattle.