中国马铃薯分省碳足迹核算与减排策略研究——基于生命周期评价法

STUDY ON CARBON FOOTPRINT ACCOUNTING BY PROVINCES AND EMISSION REDUCTION STRATEGY OF POTATO IN CHINA——BASED ON LIFE CYCLE ASSESSMENT

关键词:  马铃薯  碳足迹  生命周期评价法  年际变化  构成分析

Key words:  potato  carbon footprint  Life Cycle Assessment  interannual changes  composition analysis

摘要:

目的 核算马铃薯碳足迹，分析马铃薯碳足迹变化特征，探寻碳减排途径，为农业固碳减排和实现碳达峰碳中和目标提供数据支撑。方法 文章利用生命周期评价法（Life Cycle Assessment，LCA）对2011—2020年中国马铃薯种植阶段的碳足迹进行核算，研究分析各种植区以及省级马铃薯碳足迹年际变化和马铃薯碳足迹构成，为马铃薯典型种植区提供减排建议。结果 2011—2020年中国省级马铃薯碳排放总量呈现波浪式下降趋势。在时间尺度上，马铃薯单位面积碳足迹呈现明显的上升趋势，年均增长77.5kg CO₂eq/hm²（P<0.01）；单位产量碳足迹呈现缓慢降低趋势，平均每10年下降0.129t CO₂eq/t （P <0.1）；在空间尺度上，北方一作区和西南单双季作区的马铃薯的单位面积碳足迹处于正增长状态，马铃薯的单位产量碳足迹在除甘肃、新疆以外的大部分地区处于减少状态，马铃薯还有很大的减排空间。在马铃薯碳足迹构成中，肥料（77.72%）是马铃薯种植阶段碳足迹的主要来源，其次是农膜（9.64%）和灌溉（8.46%）。结论 综合比较马铃薯各地区的碳足迹发现，西南单双季作区和南方冬作区的减排潜力最大，其次是中原二作区和北方一作区，马铃薯减排重心逐渐南移。马铃薯减排增产已取得了阶段性成果，未来仍有很大发展空间，其中肥料是马铃薯减排的主要入手点，各种植区应制定适合本区特征的减排方案，大力推广先进减排技术，实现马铃薯减排与增产协同发展。

Abstract:

This study aims to calculate the carbon footprint of potato, analyze its changing characteristics, and explore ways to reduce carbon emissions，so as to provide data support for the sequestration and reduction of carbon in agriculture and the achievement of peak and carbon neutral targets. This research used the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) method to calculate the carbon footprint during the potato planting stage in China from 2011 to 2020, and analyzed the interannual changes in carbon emissions by province and composition of potato carbon emissions in various planting areas, then provided emission reduction technical suggestions for typical potato planting areas. The results showed that the total carbon emissions of potato at the provincial level in China showed a wavelike downward trend from 2011 to 2020. On the time scale, the carbon footprint per unit area of potato showed a significant upward trend, increasing at an average annual rate of 77.5 kg CO₂eq/hm² (P<0.01); the carbon footprint per unit yield showed a slow decreasing trend, with an average 10-year decrease of 0.129t CO₂eq/t (P<0.1). On the spatial scale, the carbon footprint per unit area of potato in the northern single crop zone and southwestern mixed crop zone were in a positive state of growth; carbon footprint per unit of production of potato were decreasing in most growing regions except Gansu and Xinjiang, having much room for potato emissions reduction. In the potato carbon footprint composition, chemical fertilizer (77.72%) was the main source of carbon emissions in the potato cultivation stage, followed by agricultural film (9.64%) and irrigation (8.46%). In summary, a comprehensive comparison of the carbon footprint of potato in various regions indicates that the southwestern mixed crop zone and the southern winter crop zone have the greatest potential for emission reduction, followed by the central double crop zone and the northern single crop zone, which shows that the focus of potato emission reduction gradually shifted south. And potato have achieved phased results in reducing emissions and increasing production, and there is still a lot of room for future development, of which fertilizer is the main starting point for potato emission reduction. Each growing region should develop carbon emission reduction plans that are suitable for their own characteristics, and vigorously promote advanced abatement technologies to achieve synergistic development of potato abatement and yield increase.