粮食主产区农业韧性的空间差异及影响因素

SPATIAL DIFFERENCES AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF AGRICULTURAL RESILIENCE IN MAJOR GRAIN-PRODUCING AREAS

关键词:  粮食主产区  农业韧性  空间差异  地理探测器  影响因素

Key words:  main grain-producing areas  agricultural resilience  spatial difference  geographic detector  influencing factor

摘要:

目的 提升粮食主产区的农业韧性是保障国家粮食安全的重要基础。方法 文章基于2011—2020年粮食主产区的数据，构建农业韧性综合评价指标体系，运用熵值法对农业韧性进行综合评价，结合Dagum基尼系数及其子群分解法分析农业韧性的空间差异，并使用地理探测器来识别农业韧性的影响因素。结果 （1）从整体来看，粮食主产区农业韧性整体呈上升趋势，各地的农业韧性均得到了较大的提升。（2）从空间差异来看，粮食主产区整体空间差异性较小，农业韧性差距主要来源于区域间的差异。其中，东北地区和各区域的农业韧性差距仍然较大，其余地区间的农业韧性差距在逐渐缩小。（3）从影响因素来看，地区市场规模、创新水平、普惠金融水平是影响农业韧性的重要因素，同时三者的交互作用会增加其对农业韧性的解释力。另外，基础设施水平、产业结构水平、与生态环境建设对农业韧性存在一定影响，地区经济水平对农业韧性的影响较弱。结论 为提升粮食主产区农业韧性，基于异质性特征，应统筹各区协调发展，充分发挥内生动力增强农业韧性。

Abstract:

Enhancing the agricultural resilience of China's main grain-producing areas is vital to ensuring national food security. Based on data from 2011 to 2020, this study constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system for agricultural resilience in these regions, applied the entropy method to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of agricultural resilience, analyzed its spatial differences by using the Dagum Gini coefficient and subgroup decomposition method, and used a geographic detector to identify the factors affecting agricultural resilience. The findings were listed as follows. (1) Overall, the agricultural resilience in China's main grain-producing areas had been on the rise, with significant improvements observed in each province. (2) In terms of spatial differences, the overall spatial differences in agricultural resilience in these regions were relatively small, and the differences mainly originated from inter-regional disparities. Although there was still a large gap in agricultural resilience between Northeast China and other regions, the gaps between all other regions had been gradually decreasing. (3) Regarding the influencing factors, the regional market size, innovation level, and inclusive financial level were significant factors affecting agricultural resilience, and their interaction could enhance the explanatory power of agricultural resilience. Additionally, the infrastructure level, industry structure level, and ecological environment construction had a moderate impact on agricultural resilience, while the impact of the regional economic level was relatively weak. Therefore, in order to enhance agricultural resilience, it is necessary to coordinate and develop these regions based on heterogeneity characteristics and leverage their internal driving forces.