畜牧业高质量发展：水平测度、区域差异及收敛性分析

HIGH-QUALITY DEVELOPMENT OF ANIMAL HUSBANDRY: LEVEL MEASUREMENT, REGIONAL DIFFERENCES AND CONVERGENCE ANALYSIS

关键词:  畜牧业高质量发展  水平测度  区域差异  空间收敛  空间计量模型

Key words:  high-quality development of animal husbandry  level measurement  regional differences  space convergence  spatial econometric model

摘要:

目的 测度畜牧业高质量发展水平并明确其区域差异和空间收敛状况，对中国畜牧业高质量发展具有指导意义。方法 文章基于畜牧业高质量发展评价指标体系和中国2009—2020年30个省（市、区，不含港澳台、西藏）面板数据测度畜牧业高质量发展水平，运用泰尔指数和空间计量模型分析其区域差异和收敛性。结果 （1）2009—2020年中国畜牧业高质量发展水平显著提高，指数由0.354上升到0.416。（2）畜牧业高质量发展水平区域差异主要来源于区域内差异，但区域内差异逐渐缩小，区域间差异逐渐扩大。（3）各区域畜牧业高质量发展水平均呈α收敛演变，同时存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛趋势，落后省域对领先省域的追赶趋势明显。（4）全国及各区域畜牧业高质量发展水平与政府投资、饲料资源显著正相关，牧区发展水平还与产业结构相关，城郊农牧结合区发展水平与产业结构、科技发展正相关。结论 建议加强畜禽养殖绿色技术创新、因地制宜采取行动、优化政策环境以促进畜牧业高质量发展。

Abstract:

Measuring the level of high-quality development of animal husbandry and clarifying its regional differences and spatial convergence are of guiding significance to the high-quality development of animal husbandry in China. This paper constructed an evaluation index system based on the connotation of high-quality development of animal husbandry, collected panel data of 30 Chinese provinces (cities, or regions) from 2009 to 2020 to measure the level of high-quality development of animal husbandry, and analyzed its regional differences and convergence by using the Thiel index and spatial econometric model. The results were showed as follows. (1) The animal husbandry high-quality development level increased significantly from 2009 to 2020, and the index rose to 0.416 from 0.354. (2) The regional differences of the animal husbandry high-quality development mainly came from the differences within each region, while the differences within the region narrowed, and these between regions widened. (3) The high-quality development level in all regions showed α convergence evolution, and there were two trends of absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence in regional level, which meant that the backward provinces had an obvious catch-up trend to the leading provinces. (4) Government investment and feed resources had a positive impact on the animal husbandry high-quality development level in China and all regions. Agricultural areas were positively affected by feed resources; and pastoral areas by industrial structure; suburban areas by industrial structure, scientific and technological development. Therefore, it is recommended to strengthen the green technology innovation of livestock and poultry breeding, take actions according to local conditions, and optimize the policy environment to promote the high-quality development of animal husbandry.