农业服务化水平提升对中国农业碳排放强度的影响研究

STUDY ON THE INFLUENCE OF AGRICULTURE SERVITIZATION ON CHINA'S AGRICULTURAL CARBON EMISSIONS INTENSITY

关键词:  农业服务化  碳排放  区域间投入产出表  时空特征  作用机制

Key words:  servitization of agriculture  carbon emission  inter regional input-output table  temporal and spatial characteristics  mechanism

摘要:

目的 研究中国各地农业服务化水平的时空演变特征，明确农业服务化对农业碳排放的影响效应与作用机制，以期为中国农业与服务业的深度融合以及绿色农业发展提供经验依据。方法 文章基于中国30个省（市、区，不含港澳台和西藏）投入产出表，对各地农业服务化水平进行测算和特征事实分析，进而采用面板固定效应模型、异质性分析以及中介效应模型等方法，考察中国农业服务化水平的碳排放效应及其作用途径。结果 （1）总体而言，近年来中国农业服务化水平稳步提升，其主要表现在对交通运输和科学技术服务的大量使用，对信息服务投入的依赖程度也逐渐增强；各地的农业服务投入越来越多地来源于经济发达地区，其国内市场一体化程度显著提高。（2）农业服务化水平提升能够有效降低农业碳排放强度，尤其是农业交通运输服务、农业批发与零售服务投入以及来源于省外的农业服务投入，对农业碳减排具有显著促进作用。（3）农业服务化水平的提升，主要通过土地规模化经营以及缓解农业财政补贴的部分负面环境效应来降低农业碳排放。结论 中国在促进现代服务业与现代农业深度融合的同时，应当注重优化农业服务投入结构，鼓励发达地区带头发展农业服务业，充分发挥土地适度规模经营与农业服务化的协同作用等，推动实现农业生产效率提升与农业碳排放强度降低的双赢局面。

Abstract:

This paper studies the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of agricultural service level in various provinces and regions in China, and clarifies the impact and mechanism of agricultural servitization on China's agricultural carbon emissions, hoping to provide an empirical basis for the deep integration of agriculture and service industry in China and the development of green agriculture. Based on the inter-regional input-output tables of 30 provinces (cities, or cautonomous regions) in China, this paper measured and analyzed the level of agricultural service in each province, and then investigated its carbon emission effect and the mechanism with panel fixed effect model, heterogeneity analysis and mediation effect model. The results showed that: (1) In general, China's level of agricultural service had steadily improved in recent years; It was mainly manifested in the extensive use of transportation and science&technology services; the reliance on information services had also increased. The sources of service inputs in all provinces were increasingly coming from developed areas and the degree of domestic market integration had increased significantly. (2) The improvement of agricultural service level could effectively reduce agricultural carbon emission intensity, especially the input of agricultural transportation services, agricultural wholesale and retail services, and agricultural service input from outside the province, which had a significant role in promoting agricultural carbon emission reduction. (3) The improvement of agricultural service level mainly reduced agricultural carbon emissions through land-scale operation and alleviating some of the negative environmental effects of agricultural financial subsidies. In summary, while promoting the deep integration of modern service industry and modern agriculture, China should pay attention to optimizing the input structure of agricultural services, encourage developed regions to take the lead in developing agricultural service industries, and give full play to the synergy between moderate land-scale operation and agricultural service, so as to promote the win-win situation of improving agricultural production efficiency and reducing agricultural carbon emission intensity.