中国种植业碳全要素生产率增长核算、动态演进与空间溢出

CARBON TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH ACCOUNTING, DYNAMIC EVOLUTION AND SPATIAL SPILLOVERS IN CHINA'S PLANTING INDUSTRY

关键词:  种植业  碳全要素生产率增长核算  农用能源碳排放  碳汇  动态演进  空间溢出效应

Key words:  planting industry  carbon total factor productivity growth accounting  agricultural energy carbon emissions  carbon sinks  dynamic evolution  spatial spillover effects

摘要:

目的 种植业碳全要素生产率增长是促进种植业可持续发展和实现“双碳”目标的重要抓手。方法 文章将种植业碳排放与碳汇分别作为非期望与期望产出，运用非径向非角度的SBM-GML指数模型对2000—2020年中国30个省（市、区，不含港澳台和西藏）的种植业碳全要素生产率增长进行核算与分解，接着利用核密度估计方法考察其动态演进趋势，最后运用空间杜宾模型分析其影响因素及空间效应。结果 （1）考察期内中国种植业碳全要素生产率年均增长1.76%，前沿技术进步年均增长1.97%，技术效率年均下降0.21%；（2）中国种植业碳全要素生产率增长的核密度曲线由“尖窄型”逐渐变为“宽扁型”，省际差距逐步扩大；（3）农业经济发展水平、农业结构调整与农村居民人均纯收入对种植业碳全要素生产率增长有显著的正向影响，财政支持水平和城镇化水平显著抑制了种植业碳全要素生产率增长，农业经济发展水平和农业结构调整具有显著的正向空间溢出效应。结论 重点关注落后地区和省份的种植业低碳生产与发展，积极倡导地区间与省份间合作，通过提升农村居民收入水平、科学合理调整农业财政支持资金投入方向与比重，有效推动种植业低碳转型，促进我国种植业可持续发展。

Abstract:

Promoting sustainable development and achieving the "double carbon" goal in China's planting industry depends on carbon total factor productivity growth. In this article, we regarded carbon emissions and carbon sinks as unexpected and expected outputs, respectively, and adopted the non-radial and non-angle SBM-GML index model to analyze and decompose the carbon total factor productivity growth in the planting industry across 30 Chinese provinces (cities, autonomous regions excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) from 2000 to 2020, then employed kernel density estimation to reveal its dynamic evolution trend. Furthermore, we applyed a spatial Durbin model to assess the influencing factors and their spatial spillover effects. Our results were showed as follows. (1) There was a promising annual growth of 1.76% in carbon total factor productivity, complemented by a 1.97% average annual advancement in frontier technological progress and a 0.21% average annual decline in technical efficiency. (2) Notably, the kernel density curve illustrated a transformation from a "sharp-narrow" shape to a "wide-flat" shape in China's planting industry, indicating a broadening inter-provincial disparity. (3) Agricultural economic development, agricultural structural adjustment, and per capita net income of rural residents significantly reinforced carbon total factor productivity growth in the planting industry. At the same time, the levels of financial support and urbanization posed notable obstacles. Moreover, there were significant positive spatial spillover effects related to agricultural economic development and structural adjustment. Given these findings, our study underscores the need to prioritize low-carbon production and development in less-developed regions and provinces and to encourage inter-regional and inter-provincial cooperation. In order to promote the low-carbon transition and sustainable development in the planting industry, we need to raise the income level of rural residents as well as to rationally adjust the direction and proportion of financial support for agriculture.