基于区位比较优势的棉花生产集聚成因分析

ANALYSIS ON THE CAUSES OF COTTON PRODUCTION AGGLOMERATION BASED ON REGIONAL COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE

关键词:  比较优势  棉花生产  集聚  成因  空间计量分析  高质量发展

Key words:  comparative advantage  cotton production  agglomeration  influencing factors  spatial econometric analysis  high-quality development

摘要:

目的 在新发展格局下，我国棉花生产面临资源环境约束趋紧、植棉收益下滑和产业链、供应链风险加剧三大挑战。农业生产集聚是实现空间资源高效利用，提升农业生产质量效益的重要途径。为了实现棉花生产的高质量发展，系统分析基于区域比较优势的棉花生产区位集聚成因具有重要的理论和现实意义。方法 文章运用集中度指数和区位熵指数，分析了1949年以来棉花生产区位集聚变化的地理集聚特征和区域比较优势特征，基于2001—2021年省级层面数据，运用空间计量模型实证分析了技术水平、社会经济环境和产业政策对于棉花生产集聚产生的影响。结果 （1）机械化程度、灌溉水平、单产水平、市场需求和目标价格补贴政策对区域棉花生产集聚的正向直接效应显著，验证了原假设，交通运输条件的负向直接影响显著，与原假设相反。（2）从间接效应看，除机械化率会产生负向的空间溢出外，其他因素的空间溢出效应并不显著。（3）从总效应上看，灌溉水平、单产水平、临时收储政策、目标价格补贴和良种补贴对棉花生产集聚都产生了显著影响，验证了原假设。结论 （1）科技进步、棉纱产量和产业政策是影响棉花生产集聚的主要因素。（2）从总体上看，棉花生产比较优势和生产集聚是科技进步、市场需求和政策引导共同作用的结果。（3）要依靠科技创新，发展下游产业链、优化产业政策促进棉花生产适度规模集聚和合理布局，推动棉花产业可持续和高质量发展。

Abstract:

Under the new economic pattern, China's cotton production faces three major challenges: tightening resource and environmental constraints，declining cotton planting profits for farmers, and intensifying uncertainty and risks in the cotton industrial chain and supply chain. Promoting agricultural industry agglomeration is an important way to achieve efficient utilization of local natural resources and improve the quality and efficiency of agricultural production. In order to achieve high-quality development of cotton production, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to systematically analyze the causes of cotton production agglomeration based on regional comparative advantages. This paper used the concentration ratio index and the location entropy index to analyze the geographical agglomeration characteristics and the evolution of regional comparative advantage as reflected in cotton production agglomeration since 1949. Based on provincial level data from 2001 to 2021, it used the spatial econometric model to explore the impact of technological progress, socio-economic environment and industrial policies on cotton production agglomeration. The results showed that（1）The degree of mechanization, irrigation level, yield per unit area, market demand, and the target price subsidy policy have a significant positive direct effect on the regional concentration of cotton production, confirming the hypothesis. In contrast, the negative direct impact of transportation conditions is significant and contrary to the hypothesis.（2）In terms of indirect effects, except for the mechanization rate, which has a negative spatial spillover effect, the spatial spillover effects of other factors are not significant, which does not align with the hypothesis.（3）From the perspective of total effects, the irrigation level, yield per unit area, temporary storage policy, target price subsidy, and high-quality seed subsidy all have a significant impact on the concentration of cotton production, confirming the hypothesis. The conclusions are as follows: (1) Technological progress, cotton yarn output, and industrial policies are the main factors affecting the concentration of cotton production.(2)The comparative advantage of cotton production and its concentration are the result of the combined effects of technological progress, market demand, and policy guidance.（3）It is necessary to rely on technological innovation, develop the downstream industry chain, optimize industrial policies to promote moderate scale concentration and rational layout of cotton production, and drive the sustainable and high-quality development of the cotton industry.