绿色投资还是污染制造：中国对外农业直接投资与东道国农业碳排放

GREEN INVESTMENT OR POLLUTION MANUFACTURING: CHINA'S FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN AGRICULTURE WITH THE HOST COUNTRY OF AGRICULTURAL CARBON EMISSIONS

关键词:  中国对外农业直接投资  东道国农业碳排放  绿色投资  能源结构  中介效应

Key words:  China's foreign agricultural direct investment  host country agricultural carbon emissions  green investment  energy structure  intermediary effect

摘要:

目的 探究现阶段中国对外农业投资对东道国的生态效应，对于回应中国践行国际合作的绿色投资之路至关重要。方法 文章基于2016—2020年中国对71个国家农业直接投资的面板数据，利用扩展的环境库兹涅茨曲线模型揭示了中国对外农业直接投资对东道国农业碳排放的影响，并考察东道国能源结构在其中的中介机制。结果 （1）当前，中国对外农业直接投资对东道国农业碳排放的影响呈“U”型关系，中国对外农业直接投资较小时对东道国农业碳排放发挥抑制作用，当投资规模越过阈值时则发挥促进作用，这一结论打破了西方媒体长期抹黑中国对外农业投资是“制造污染”的谬论，深刻回应了中国一直以来践行互利共赢的绿色贸易之路的事实；（2）异质性分析表明，这种“U”型关系在农业生产规模较小的国家更明显；分位数回归发现，随着东道国农业碳排放强度的增加，投资活动对东道国发挥农业碳减排效应的阈值提前到来；（3）东道国能源结构在中国对外农业直接投资与东道国农业碳排放的影响关系中发挥主要中介作用，中国对外农业投资的绿色技术溢出加快了东道国能源结构的转变进而影响东道国的农业碳排放强度。结论 中国对外农业直接投资对东道国农业碳减排效应明显，绿色投资现象是存在的。但受到投资规模的影响，不同投资规模下兼具发挥抑制与促进两方面的作用。

Abstract:

Exploring the ecological effect of China's foreign agricultural investment on the host country at the present stage is crucial to responding to China's green investment through international cooperation. Based on the panel data of China's agricultural direct investment in 71 countries from 2016 to 2020, the expanded environmental Kuznets curve model was used to reveal the impact of China's foreign agricultural direct investment on the agricultural carbon emissions of the host countries, and the intermediary mechanism of the energy structure of the host countries was investigated. The results were indicated as follows.(1) Current, the impact of China's foreign agricultural direct investment on agricultural carbon emissions was a "U"-shaped relationship. When China's outward agricultural direct investment was relatively small, it had a restraining effect on the carbon emissions of host countries' agriculture. When the investment scale exceeded the threshold, it had a promoting effect. And this conclusion broke the fallacy that the Western media had long said that China's foreign investment in agriculture was "creating pollution". It profoundly responsed to the fact that China had been practicing the mutually beneficial and win-win road of green trade; (2) The heterogeneity analysis showed that, this "U" -shaped relationship was significant in countries with smaller agricultural production scales, but not significant in larger countries (agricultural added value accounts for more than 20% of GNP); The quantile regression found that, with the increase of agricultural carbon emission intensity in the host country, the threshold of investment activities for the host country to exert the agricultural carbon emission reduction effect came in advance; (3) The energy structure of the host country played a major intermediary role in the relationship between China's foreign agricultural direct investment and the agricultural carbon emissions of the host country, the green technology spillover of China's foreign agricultural investment accelerated the transformation of the energy structure of the host country and then affected the agricultural carbon emission intensity of the host country. In summary, China's foreign agricultural investment has an obvious effect on agricultural carbon emission reduction in the host country, and the phenomenon of green investment exists. However, due to the influence of the investment scale, different investment scale can play the role of both inhibition and promotion.