农业水价综合改革政策经济社会影响机制研究

STUDY ON THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL INFLUENCE MECHANISM OF AGRICULTURAL WATER PRICE REFORM

关键词:  农业水价  政策影响评估  传导机制  偏最小二乘结构方程模型  综合改革

Key words:  agricultural water price  policy influence evaluation  transmission mechanism  partial least squares structural equation modeling, PLS-SEM  comprehensive reform

摘要:

目的 我国农业水价综合改革政策环境效益显著，但其经济社会影响传导机制尚不明确。通过分析验证农业水价综合改革政策的经济社会影响传导机制，探讨政策实施对区域农业农村经济社会高质量发展的影响路径及正负效应。方法 文章以农户行为理论为基础，遵循投入产出基本逻辑，构建偏最小二乘结构方程模型，验证关于政策经济社会影响传导机制的理论假设。结果 （1）农业节水为政策传导机制的第一环节，政策对农业节水存在显著的促进作用；（2）种植结构、涉农就业分别为经济、社会影响传导机制的第二环节，政策对二者均存在间接负向影响；（3）最终环节中，政策对经济产出存在积极影响；政策社会影响中，对农村居民收入的影响为正向，对农村人口的影响为负向。结论 农业水价综合改革政策对农业农村经济发展、涉农就业、农村人口及农民收入等存在不同程度的政策效应，因此地方政府部门应准确把握政策影响机制，积极引导农户合理优化就业结构，推动区域农业农村经济社会高质量发展。

Abstract:

The environmental benefits of China's agricultural water price reform policy are remarkable, but the transmission mechanism of its economic and social effects is not yet clear. Through analyzing and verifying the transmission mechanism of the economic and social impact of agricultural water price reform policy, the influence path and effects of the policy implementation on the high-quality development of regional rural economy and society are discussed. Based on the farmers' behavior theory and following the basic logic of input-output, a partial least squares-structural equation model was constructed to verify the theoretical hypothesis about the transmission mechanism. The results were showed as follows. (1) Agricultural water-saving served as the first link in the policy transmission mechanism, which had a significant promoting effect; (2) Croping structure and agricultural employment were the second links in the economic and social impact transmission mechanism respectively, which had indirect negative effects on both. (3) In the final link, the policy had a positive impact on economic output; Among the social impacts, the impact on rural residents' income was positive, while the impact on rural population was negative. In summary, the agricultural water price reform policy has different degrees of effects on agricultural economic development, rural employment, rural population and farmers' income. Therefore, local government departments should accurately grasp the policy impact mechanism, actively guide farmers to rationally optimize the employment structure, therefore promote the high-quality development of regional agricultural economy and society.