基于LVI-IPCC框架下的退捕渔民生计脆弱性及影响因素研究——以湖南和湖北为例

LIVELIHOOD VULNERABILITY AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF RETIRED FISHERMEN BASED ON THE LVI-IPCC FRAMEWORK——A CASE STUDY OF HUNAN AND HUBEI PROVINCE

关键词:  长江禁捕补偿政策  LVI-IPCC框架  生计脆弱性  Jenks自然断点法  夏普利值分解法

Key words:  fishing-ban compensation policy of Yangtze River  LVI-IPCC framework  livelihood vulnerability  Jenks natural break classification  Shapley value decomposition method

摘要:

目的 识别退捕渔民生计脆弱性特征，了解退捕渔民生计脆弱性的影响因素，为降低退捕渔民生计脆弱性，完善禁捕补偿政策提供决策参考。方法 文章基于联合国政府间气候变化委员会（IPCC）提出的“暴露—适应能力—敏感性”生计脆弱性（LVI）研究框架，构建了长江流域退捕渔民生计脆弱性评价指标体系并对退捕渔民的生计脆弱性进行测度，通过自然断点法的分级结果识别不同生计脆弱等级退捕渔民的特征，进一步利用线性回归模型及夏普利值分解法对影响长江流域退捕渔民生计脆弱性的因素及贡献度进行分析。结果 （1）研究区域退捕渔民普遍存在生计脆弱性，湖北地区退捕渔民受到就业市场影响以及自身生计资本的限制，其生计脆弱性要略高于湖南地区。（2）高、中、低不同脆弱等级水平的退捕渔民单维生计脆弱性分别呈现出“高暴露、低适应、高敏感”“中暴露、中适应、中敏感”和“低暴露、高适应、低敏感”的相对特征。（3）户主性别、年龄、受教育程度、家庭收入以及生计多样性对退捕渔民生计脆弱性有显著影响，其中户主特征对生计脆弱性的贡献度最大。结论 健全退捕渔民动态回访机制，提高风险防范能力，关注生计脆弱重点群体，降低暴露水平；优化退捕渔民生计结构，加强生计资本建设，增强适应能力；保障就业促进工作落实到位，增加退捕渔民就业稳定性，增强风险抵御能力，降低敏感性。

Abstract:

After the implementation of fishing ban in the Yangtze River, the retired fishermen lost their original means of livelihood and were in a relatively vulnerable state of livelihood. Based on the livelihood vulnerability (LVI) research framework proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) , this paper constructed an assessment index system for the livelihood vulnerability of retired fishermen in the Yangtze River Basin. The vulnerability of the livelihood of the fishermen was measured, and the characteristics of the retired fishermen of each livelihood vulnerability levels were ascertained through the classification results of the Jenks natural break classification method. The linear regression model was further used to analyze the factors affecting the livelihood vulnerability of the retired fishermen and the contributing factors were analyzed within Shapley value decomposition method. The results showed that: (1) There was the state of livelihood vulnerability of retired fishermen in the study area, and the vulnerability of retired fishermen in Hubei was slightly higher than that in Hunan due to the influence of the job market and the limitation of their own livelihood capital. (2) Retired fishermen which was classified into levels of high, medium and low livelihood vulnerability showed different relative characteristics in the unidimensional livelihood vulnerability index. ‘High level’ group showed ‘high exposure, low adaptation, high sensitivity’, ‘Medium level’ group showed ‘medium exposure, medium adaptation, medium sensitivity’, while ‘low level’ group showed ‘low exposure, high adaptation, low sensitivity’ respectively. (3) Gender, age, education level of householder, household income, and livelihood diversity had a significant impact on the livelihood vulnerability of retired fishermen. The characteristics of householder contributed most to livelihood vulnerability. Therefore, it should establish a dynamic follow-up mechanism for retired fishermen, enhance risk prevention capabilities, focus on vulnerable livelihood groups, and reduce exposure levels; and optimize the livelihood structure of retired fishermen, strengthen livelihood capital construction, and enhance adaptability; as well as ensure the implementation of employment promotion work, increase the stability of employment for retired fishermen, enhance their ability to resist risks, and reduce sensitivity. These measures may mitigate the livelihood vulnerability of retired fishermen in the Yangtze River Basin to some extent.