中国农业对外投资国家风险识别与影响研究

RESEARCH ON THE IDENTIFICATION AND IMPACT OF NATIONAL RISKS OF CHINA'S AGRICULTURAL FOREIGN INVESTMENT

关键词:  农业对外投资  国家风险  风险识别  风险影响  负二项回归模型

Key words:  agricultural foreign investment  national risk  risk identification  risk impact  negative binomial regression model

摘要:

目的 识别并评估中国农业对外投资所面临的国家风险，分析东道国国家层面的各类风险对中国企业开展农业对外投资的影响，对于充分利用好国内国外两个市场两种资源，优化中国在全球领域的农业产业布局，提升中国农业的国际竞争力意义重大。方法 文章基于2006—2018年全球85个国家和地区的风险指标数据和中国农业对外投资项目数据，首先运用主成分分析法和熵值法对东道国国家风险进行测度评估，其次运用负二项回归模型进一步探究东道国国家层面的各类风险对中国农业对外投资水平的影响。结果 东道国的整体国家风险、社会风险和农业环境风险负向影响中国农业对外投资，而政治风险正向影响中国农业对外投资，良好的东道国经济发展水平、开放的投资营商环境、较低的通货膨胀率等因素能够吸引中国企业前往开展农业对外投资，从研究对象是否为“一带一路”沿线国家和地区的角度进行异质性分析，发现“一带一路”沿线国家和地区的国家风险对中国农业对外投资的影响显著低于非沿线国家和地区的影响。结论 为了更好地促进中国农业对外投资，政府应完善海外农业项目的信贷税收保险外汇等配套政策，建立海外投资信息发布制度，建立专业化海外投资风险评估机构，企业应积极承担东道国当地社会责任，坚持全产业链建设，重视国际化人才培养与储备。

Abstract:

Identifying and evaluating the national risks faced by China's agricultural foreign investment, analyzing the impact of various risks at the national level of host countries on Chinese enterprises engaged in China's agricultural foreign investment, holds significant importance for fully utilizing and optimizing both domestic and international markets and resources. And this will enhance China's agricultural industry layout globally and elevate its international competitiveness. Based on risk index data from 85 countries and regions globally from 2006 to 2018 and data on China's agricultural foreign investment projects, this study first employed principal component analysis and entropy methods to assess and evaluate the host country's national risks. Subsequently, it further explored the impact of various risks at the national level in the host country on China's agricultural foreign investment by using a negative binomial regression model. The results were showed as follows. National, social, and agricultural environmental risks in host countries negatively influenced China's agricultural foreign investment, while political risks had a positive influence. Factors such as a favorable host country economic development, an open investment and business environment, and lower inflation rates attracted Chinese enterprises to engage in agricultural foreign investment. From the perspective of whether the research objects were countries and regions along the "Belt and Road", heterogeneous analysis revealed that the impact of national risks in countries and regions along the "Belt and Road" on China's agricultural foreign investment was significantly lower than that in the countries and regions not along the route. Therefore, to further promote China's agricultural foreign investment, the government should enhance supporting policies such as credit, tax, insurance, and foreign exchange for overseas agricultural projects, establish systems for releasing information on overseas investments, and establish specialized overseas investment risk assessment institutions, while enterprises should actively undertake local social responsibilities in host countries, adhere to complete industry chain construction, and emphasize the cultivation and reserve of international talents.