| 摘要: |
| 目的 文章旨在揭示不同情景下洞庭湖流域生态系统服务价值的演变特征，探究不同生态系统服务功能的权衡/协同关系，以期为该流域可持续发展提供科学参考。方法 利用PLUS模型（Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation Model）和当量因子法，模拟评估2030年不同土地利用情景下洞庭湖流域生态系统服务价值，并结合权衡协同度模型分析各生态系统服务功能间的权衡/协同关系。结果 （1）自然演化、生态保护、经济发展和规划发展情景下的生态系统服务价值分别为1.297 2万亿元、1.305 4万亿元、1.291 3万亿元和1.294 0万亿元，其中自然演化与生态保护情景下生态系统服务价值较2020年有所增加，而经济发展和规划发展情景有所缩减；（2）不同情景下生态系统服务价值高值区集聚在洞庭湖区的低洼地带，低值区主要位于长株潭城市群和湘中地区；（3）自然演化、生态保护和经济发展情景下各生态服务系统功能间的权衡/协同关系大致相同，而规划发展情景则与2020年相一致。结论 规划发展情景兼顾生态保护与经济发展的土地利用需求特征，符合未来洞庭湖流域生态与经济高质量协同发展目标。 |
| 关键词: 多情景模拟 生态系统服务价值 洞庭湖流域 PLUS模型 权衡协同 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20241011 |
| 分类号:X171.1 |
| 基金项目:国家级大学生创新创业训练计划重点支持领域项目“基于多情景模拟的洞庭湖流域生态系统服务价值研究”（S202310538002）；国家社科基金一般项目“基于复杂网络的城镇化与生态韧性远程耦合机理及调控路径研究”（22BJY094）；湖南省自然科学基金面上项目“全程耦合理念下洞庭湖流域城镇化和生态环境协调发展研究”（2022JJ30080）；湖南省社会科学成果评审委员课题“新发展理念下湖南省城镇化与生态环境耦合机制研究”（XSP22YBC221）；中国博士后科研基金面上项目“洞庭湖流域生态系统服务时空演变及权衡协同关系研究”（2021M693573）；湖南省教育厅科学研究重点项目“洞庭湖流域森林碳汇时空动态演化及调控策略研究”（23A0220） |
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| ANALYSIS OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICE VALUE WITH MULTI-SCENARIO SIMULATION IN DONGTING LAKE BASIN |
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Li Yiwen1,2, Lin Tao1, Zhou Wenqiang3, Yang Ling1,2
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1.College of Business, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha410004, Hunan, China;2.Hunan Province Ecological Civilization Construction Research Base, Changsha410004, Hunan, China;3.College of Forestry, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha410004, Hunan, China
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| Abstract: |
| The article aims to reveal the evolution of ecosystem service value (ESV) in the Dongting Lake Basin under different scenarios, and explore the trade-offs/synergies between different ecosystem services, so as to provide a scientific reference for sustainable development of the basin. The article used the PLUS model (Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation Model) and the equivalent factor method to simulate and evaluate the ESV in the Dongting Lake Basin under different land-use scenarios in 2030, and combined the trade-off synergy model to analyze the trade-offs/synergies between ecosystem services. The results showed that: (1) The ESV of the basin under natural development, ecological protection, economic development, and planned development scenarios was 1.2972 trillion yuan, 1.3054 trillion yuan, 1.2913 trillion yuan, and 1.2940 trillion yuan, respectively. The ESV of natural development scenario and ecological protection scenario increased compared to 2020, while that of economic development scenario and planned development scenario decreased. (2) The high ESV areas were mainly concentrated in the low-lying areas of the Dongting Lake region, while the low ESV areas were mainly located in the Changzhutan urban agglomeration and central Hunan. (3) The distribution of trade-offs and synergies among different ecosystem services in natural development scenario, ecological protection scenario and economic development scenario was roughly the same, and the planned development scenario was roughly the same as that in 2020. The conclusion demonstrates that the planned development scenario should take into account the land-use demand characteristics of ecological protection and economic development, and it also should be in line with the goal of high-quality coordinated development of ecology and economy in the Dongting Lake Basin in the future. |
| Key words: multiple scenarios ecosystem service value Dongting Lake Basin PLUS model trade-offs/synergies |
