为何逆差越拉越大：中国农产品国际贸易结构、逆差逻辑与破局之道

WHY IS THE DEFICIT GETTING BIGGER AND BIGGER：CHINA'S INTERNATIONAL TRADE STRUCTURE OF AGRICULTURALPRODUCTS, INVERIT LOGIC AND GAME BREAKING

关键词:  农产品国际贸易  贸易逆差  WTO  农业现代化  高质量发展

Key words:  international trade of agricultural products  trade deficit  WTO  agricultural modernization  high quality development

摘要:

目的 当前我国农产品国际贸易已迈入新的发展阶段，但同时也为维护国家农产品安全带来了一系列前所未有的非传统压力和挑战。方法 文章以中国农业国际贸易逆差持续扩大为视角，基于2000—2022年中国农产品国际贸易数据，全面比较分析了中国农产品国际贸易的发展与变化。结果 （1）我国农业国际贸易逆差达到历史最高水平，由于内需缺口扩大和比较优势逐渐消失，逆差在中长期无法缓解。区域上，逆差呈现南美洲北美洲大洋洲欧洲（非洲基本持平），贸易对象上，逆差主要来源于巴西、美国、澳大利亚、新西兰、加拿大、泰国和阿根廷等国；（2）贸易产品上，大豆、畜产品、棉花和谷物等成为逆差主要来源。（3）逆差成因上，既包含内部技术体系不成熟，出口产品缺乏核心竞争力；内源性产能不足，个别产品缺口明显；国际组织能力不强，缺乏农业国际话语权；农产品市场开放度高，保护性措施不足等因素引发的农产品“难以出去”“不得不进”“难以竞争”“难以调配”和“难以抵挡”的情况，也包含外部外源性竞争激烈，市场容量压缩；特异性壁垒高筑，出口面临“围城”的“难以抗衡”和“不得而出”的困境。结论 新一轮更高水平开放背景下，亟须转型思维、构建多元农产品安全供给体系。从需求端强化技术支撑稳定提升国内供给能力，完善贸易规则保护国内市场；从供给端细分出口市场，扩大优势农产品出口，从而推动我国农业国际贸易高质量发展。

Abstract:

The current international agricultural trade enteres a new stage of development, agricultural international trade rising steadily, agricultural opening to the outside world is the global leading ranks, international agricultural market increasingly becomes an important part of the stable supply of domestic agricultural products, but also for the maintenance of national agricultural security brings a series of unprecedented unconventional pressure and challenges. Based on China's agricultural international trade data from 2000 to 2022, this research comprehensively compared and analyzed the development and changes of China's agricultural international trade from the perspective of the continuous expansion of China's agricultural international trade deficit. The results were listed as follows. (1) China's agricultural international trade deficit reached the highest level in history. Due to the widening of domestic demand gap and the gradual disappearance of comparative advantage, the deficit couldnot be alleviated in the medium and long term. Regionally, the deficit level presented the state of South America North America Oceania Europe (Africa basically achieved trade balance), trade deficit mainly came from Brazil, the United States, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Thailand and Argentina countries;（2）Trade products, soybeans, animal products, cotton and grain became the main source of deficit products. And the causes of this high deficit included an immature internal technological system and a lack of core competitiveness of export products. (3) There were insufficient endogenous production capacity and significant gaps in some products, and for weak international organizations, agricultural international discourse power was weak. (4) The high openness of agricultural product markets and insufficient protective measures led to situations where agricultural products were difficult to export, forced to enter, difficult to compete, difficult to allocate, and difficult to resist, as well as intense external competition and market capacity compression. (5) Specific barriers were high, and exports faced the dilemma of being surrounded and unable to resist. Therefore, under the background of a new round of higher-level opening-up, it is urgent to transform the thinking and build a diversified strategic guarantee system for agricultural products security. And it should strengthen the technical support from the demand side to steadily improve the domestic supply capacity, and improve the trade rules to protect the domestic market. Additionly, from the supply side to subdivide the export market, it should expand export of superior agricultural products, and develop diversified export projects to avoid international barriers, so as to effectively reduce the deficit and promote the high-quality development of China's international agricultural trade.