黄河流域农业高质量发展水平测度、地区差异及动态演进

THE MEASUREMENT AND REGIONAL DIFFERENCE AND DYNAMIC EVOLUTION OF HIGH-QUALITY DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURE IN THE YELLOW RIVER BASIN

关键词:  黄河流域  农业高质量发展  测度  地区差异  动态演进

Key words:  the Yellow River Basin  high-quality development of agriculture  measurement  regional difference  dynamic evolution

摘要:

目的 为了持续缩小农业高质量发展水平地区差异，促进黄河流域农业高质量发展一体化、协同化。方法 文章基于2001—2022年黄河流域农业生产数据，采用熵权Topsis法测算了其农业高质量发展水平，并使用Dagum 基尼系数、核密度估计考察了其农业高质量发展水平增长的地区差异、动态演进。结果 （1）2001—2022年黄河流域农业高质量发展水平不断提升，但呈现出明显的地区不平衡性与阶段性波动特征，地区差异不断扩大；（2）地区间差异对农业高质量发展水平地区差异贡献最大，地区内部差异的贡献次之，超变密度的贡献最小；（3）黄河流域及上游、下游、中游地区农业高质量水平增长分别经历了由“双峰”到“多峰”“双峰”到“单峰”再到“双峰”、由“双峰”到“单峰”、由“双峰”到“多峰”再到“双峰”的转变。结论 应从着力打造农业高质量发展的合力，实现农业高质量发展的“多元驱动”，促进省（自治区）际间资本、农业技术、人才、信息等要素资源的流动，加快提升财政支出促进农业高质量发展的边际效应，统筹推进黄河流域农业高质量发展和生态安全、环境安全及经济安全等方面发力，以期促进黄河流域农业高质量发展。

Abstract:

In order to continuously reduce the regional differences in the level of high-quality development of agriculture, and promote the integration and collaboration of high-quality development of agriculture in the Yellow River Basin. Based on the agricultural production data of the Yellow River Basin from 2001 to 2022, this paper estimated the level of high-quality development of agriculture in the Yellow River Basin by using the entropy topsis method, and adopted Dagum Gini coefficient and Kernel density methods to investigate regional differences in the growth of the level of high-quality development of agriculture in the Yellow River Basin and its dynamic evolution. The results showed that: (1) The level of high-quality development of agriculture in the Yellow River Basin had been continuously improved from 2001 to 2022, showing obvious regional imbalances and periodic fluctuations, and regional differences continued to widen;（2）The contribution of inter-regional differences to regional differences was most, the contribution of intra-regional differences to regional differences was second and the contribution of intra-regional differences to regional differences was least. (3) The level of high-quality development of agriculture in the Yellow River Basin and its upstream, downstream, and midstream regions had undergone a transformation from "bimodal" to "multimodal", "bimodal" to "unimodal", and then to "bimodal", from "bimodal" to "unimodal", and from "bimodal" to "multimodal" and then to "bimodal". Therefore, this research proposes that we should cultivate the synergy of high-quality development of agriculture to a "diversified drive" for high-quality development of agriculture, promote the flow of factor resources of capital, agricultural technology, talent, and information among provinces(autonomous regions) in the Yellow River Basin, and accelerate the marginal effect of fiscal expenditure on promoting high-quality development of agriculture, then coordinate efforts to promote high-quality development of agriculture, ecological security, environmental security and economic security in the Yellow River Basin, so as to promote high-quality development of agriculture in the Yellow River Basin.