河南省耕地“非粮化”空间分异特征及其驱动因素分析

ANALYSIS OF SPATIAL DIFFERENTIATION CHARACTERISTICS AND DRIVING FACTORS OF “NON-GRAIN” CULTIVATED LAND IN HENAN PROVINCE

关键词:  耕地“非粮化”  空间自相关  地理探测器  驱动因素  河南省

Key words:  "non-grain" cultivated land  spatial autocorrelation  geodetector  driving factors  Henan province

摘要:

目的 河南省作为农业大省，耕地“非粮化”现象日益明显。理清河南省耕地“非粮化”空间分异特征及其驱动因素，为防治耕地“非粮化”，优化耕地利用提供决策参考。方法 文章采用空间自相关分析对河南省耕地“非粮化”空间分异格局进行研究，使用地理探测器模型对其驱动因素进行探究。结果 （1）2010年、2015年和2020年河南省耕地“非粮化”率平均值分别为32.12%、29.15%和32.21%，耕地“非粮化”水平具有一定的变动幅度。2015—2020年耕地“非粮化”上升率增加了3.06%，且目前处于中度“非粮化”。（2）在空间上形成了河南省西南部（南阳市、三门峡市）、中部（郑州市、开封市、许昌市）等地区“非粮化”率高，北部（新乡市、鹤壁市、安阳市、濮阳市、焦作市）、东部（周口市、商丘市）等地区较低的空间分异格局，且具有明显的集聚特征。（3）河南省耕地“非粮化”的空间分异格局是由多因素综合作用的结果，其中高程、人均消费水平、人均耕地面积和坡度对于该格局变化具有较强的影响。结论 研究期内，河南省耕地“非粮化”在经济、自然资源条件等各种因素的驱动下，呈现出上升趋势，并具有显著的空间分异特征。基于河南省耕地“非粮化”的时空演变特征及其驱动因素分析，为政府精准制定防治耕地“非粮化”措施提供决策参考依据。

Abstract:

As a major agricultural province, the phenomenon of "non-grain" cultivated land in Henan province becomes increasingly obvious. Clarifying the spatial differentiation characteristics and driving factors of "non-grain" cultivated land in Henan province can provide decision-making references for the prevention and treatment of "non-grain" cultivated land and the optimization of land use. This research adopted spatial autocorrelation analysis to study the spatial differentiation pattern of "non-grain" cultivated land in Henan province, and used the geodetector model to explore its driving factors. The results showed that: (1) The average rates of "non-grain" cultivated land in Henan province in 2010, 2015, and 2020 were 32.12%, 29.15%, and 32.21%, respectively, showing a certain range of fluctuation. The rate of "non-grain" cultivated land increased by 3.06% from 2015 to 2020, currently being at a moderate level of "non-grain" cultivated land. (2) A spatial differentiation pattern had been formed in the southwestern (Nanyang city, Sanmenxia city) and central (Zhengzhou city, Kaifeng city, Xuchang city) regions of Henan province and low in the northern (Xinxiang city, Hebi city, Anyang city, Puyang city, Jiaozuo city) and eastern (Zhoukou city, Shangqiu city) regions, with evident clustering characteristics. (3) The spatial differentiation pattern of "non-grain" cultivated land in Henan province was the result of the combined effects of multiple factors, among which elevation, per capita consumption level, per capita arable land area, and slope had a strong impact on this pattern change. In summary, during the research period, the "non-grain" cultivated land in Henan province showed an upward trend and significant spatial differentiation characteristics under the drive of economic and natural resource conditions, among other factors. Based on the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of the "non-grain" cultivated land in Henan province and the analysis of its driving factors, this provides a decision-making reference for the government to precisely formulate measures against the "non-grain" cultivated land.