气温变化对粮食绿色生产效率的影响效应与传导机制

THE IMPACT AND TRANSMISSION MECHANISM OF TEMPERATURE CHANGES ON GREEN PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY OF GRAIN

关键词:  一般气温变化  极端气温变化  粮食绿色生产效率  农业技术进步  环境规制  劳动生产率

Key words:  general temperature changes  extreme temperature changes  green production efficiency of grain  agricultural technology progress  environmental regulation  labor productivity

摘要:

目的 在气候变暖趋势持续背景下，明确气温变化对粮食绿色生产效率的影响效应和传导机制，对于协调好粮食生产与环境保护之间的关系，提高粮食绿色生产效率具有重要的现实意义。方法 文章基于2012—2021年中国省级面板数据，利用非期望产出超效率SBM模型对粮食绿色生产效率进行测算，进而采用面板Tobit模型和中介效应模型，论证气温变化对粮食绿色生产效率的影响及作用途径。结果 （1）研究发现，一般气温变化对粮食绿色生产效率的增长具有显著正向影响；极端气温变化显著抑制了粮食绿色生产效率的提高。（2）传导机制表明，一般气温变化能够通过促进农业技术进步、提高环境规制强度来影响粮食绿色生产效率的增长；而极端气温变化通过降低劳动生产率来影响粮食绿色生产效率的增长。（3）异质性分析显示，在粮食主产区，一般气温变化对粮食绿色生产效率的促进效应尤为突出；在粮食主销区和产销平衡区，极端气温变化对粮食绿色生产效率的抑制作用更加明显，且极端气温变化对产销平衡区粮食绿色生产效率的负向冲击更大。结论 因此，推进粮食绿色生产技术研发，加强粮食生产政策保障，因地制宜提高气温变化适应能力，是促进粮食绿色生产效率提升的重要选择。

Abstract:

Under the context of the continuous trend of climate warming, clarifying the impact and transmission mechanism of temperature changes on green production efficiency of grain is of great practical significance for coordinating the relationship between grain production and environmental protection, and improving the green production efficiency of grain. Based on provincial-level panel data in China from 2012 to 2021, the undesired output super-efficiency SBM model was used to measure the green production efficiency of grain. And, the panel Tobit model and mediation effect model was adopted to demonstrate the impact and pathways of temperature changes on the green production efficiency of grain. The study found that general temperature changes had a significant positive impact on the growth of green production efficiency of grain. However, extreme temperature changes significantly inhibited the improvement of green grain production efficiency. According to the mechanism analysis, general temperature changes enhanced green grain production efficiency by promoting agricultural technological progress and improving the intensity of environmental regulation. However, extreme temperature changes affected the growth of green grain production efficiency by reducing labor productivity. Heterogeneity analysis showed that the magnitude of the impact of general temperature changes on the green production efficiency of grain was higher in the main producing areas; while the inhibitory effect of extreme temperature changes was more intense in the main sales areas, and in areas where production and marketing were balanced. Furthermore, extreme temperature changes had a greater negative impact on the green production efficiency of grain in areas with a balance between production and marketing. Therefore, promoting the research and development of green production technologies for grain, strengthening policy guarantees for grain production, and improving adaptability to temperature changes according to local conditions are important choices to promote the improvement of green production efficiency for grain.