极端旱灾、经营规模与农户适应性行为——基于江淮分水岭地区农户调查数据分析

EXTREME DROUGHT, OPERATION SCALE AND FARMERS'ADAPITIVE BEHAVIOR——ANALYSISONTHE FARMERS SURVEY DATA IN JIANGHUAI WATERSHED

关键词:  经营规模  旱灾  适应性行为  资本偏向型  技术偏向型

Key words:  operation scale  drought  adaptive behavior  capital biased  technology biased

摘要:

目的 随着经营规模扩大，清晰农户面对自然灾害的适应行为变迁特征是公共政策制定的基础。方法 文章以2022年江淮分水岭地区发生极端旱灾为背景，基于342份农户调研数据，探讨经营规模对农户适应性行为的影响。结果 （1）经营规模对农户采取适应性行为具有正向影响；（2）经营规模对农户采取不同类型适应性行为的影响具有异质性，其中经营规模正向影响农户采取抗旱新品种和加强灌溉；经营规模负向影响农户采取补苗和调整种植结构，经营规模对农户调整播种日期的影响不显著。（3）内在机制为：随着经营规模扩大，农户资源禀赋构成发生变迁，倾向于采取资本偏向型和技术偏向型的适应性行为；此外，农户资产专用性水平提高，调整种植结构面临更多的沉没成本。结论 在自然灾害频发背景下，进一步扩大农业经营规模水平，加强规模经营主体应对自然灾害的技术培训和投资支持，促进相关社会化服务建设，提高抵御自然灾害能力。

Abstract:

The adaptive behavior of farmers in face of natural disasters is the basis for public policy formulation, especially with the expansion of agricultural operation scale. Based on 342 farmer survey data, this paper examined the impact of operation scale on the adaptive behavior of farmers in the Jianghuai watershed, where an extreme drought occurred in 2022. The results were found as follows. (1) Operation scale had a positive impact on the adaptive behavior of farmers; (2) The impact of operation scale varied across different types of adaptive behavior, such that operation scale positively affected the adoption of new drought-resistant varieties and the enhancement of irrigation, while it negatively affected the adoption of seedling supplement and the adjustment of planting structure. Operation scale had no significant impact on the adjustment of sowing date; (3) The internal mechanism was that with the expansion of operation scale, the composition of farmers' resource endowment changed, and they tended to adopt capital-biased and technology-biased adaptive behavior. Moreover, the level of asset specificity of farmers increased, and they faced more sunk costs when adjusting their planting structure. In the context of frequent natural disasters, this research suggests that the government should further expand the scale of agricultural operations, strengthen the technical training and investment support for the main entities of scale operations to cope with natural disasters, so as to promote the construction of relevant social services.