中国草莓生产空间布局变迁及影响因素研究

ANALYSIS ON THE CHANGES AND INFLUENCE FACTORS OF THE PRODUCTION LAYOUT OF STRAWBERRY IN CHINA

关键词:  草莓  生产布局  影响因素  空间计量模型  溢出效应

Key words:  strawberry  production layout  influencing factor  spatial econometrics model  overflow effect

摘要:

目的 近年来，中国草莓产业发展迅速，种植规模不断扩大，充分把握草莓生产布局变迁规律，制定科学合理的布局规划对促进草莓产业健康发展具有重要意义。方法 文章基于2002—2018年全国27个省（市、区）的草莓生产数据，运用描述统计分析、集中度指数和Moran's I分析中国草莓的生产布局特征及变化趋势，并构建空间杜宾模型实证检验影响中国草莓生产布局变迁的因素。结果 （1）中国草莓生产布局存在显著的空间集聚特征，优势产区集中在东部地区，但集聚趋势有所减弱；（2）南方和西部地区的草莓种植面积比重有所上升，草莓生产布局在一定程度上表现出“西迁南移”的特征；（3）中国草莓生产存在显著的空间溢出效应，气温、日照时数、劳动力成本、人均GDP、非农就业机会、有效灌溉面积、化肥施用量、交通运输水平对草莓生产布局变迁有重要影响。结论 建议根据草莓生产布局的规律合理配置资源，因地制宜地进行草莓生产布局规划，着力改善草莓生产条件，加强不同区域之间的合作，促进草莓产业健康持续发展。

Abstract:

In recent years, the strawberry industry in China has developed rapidly and the planting scale is continuously expanding. It is of great significance to fully grasp the law of change of strawberry production layout and formulate scientific and reasonable layout plans to promote the stability and development of the strawberry industry. Based on strawberry production data from 27 provinces (cities, autonomous regions) in China, the descriptive statistical analysis, the concentration index, and the Moran's I were used to analyze the characteristics and trends of China's strawberry production layout from 2002 to 2018, and a spatial Durbin model was constructed to empirically test the factors affecting the changes in strawberry production layout in China. The results indicated that: (1) There was a significant spatial agglomeration feature in the strawberry production layout, with advantageous production areas concentrated in the eastern region of China, but the agglomeration trend had weakened; (2) The proportion of strawberry planting area in the southern and western regions of China had increased, and the development trend showed strawberry production significantly shifted westward and southward in a certain degree; (3) There were significant spatial spillover effects on strawberry production in China, and temperature, sunshine duration, labor cost, per capita GDP, non-agricultural employment opportunities, effective irrigation area, fertilizer application, and transportation level had important impacts on the change of strawberry production layout. Therefore, it is recommended that resources should be allocated reasonably according to the law of strawberry production layout and that the strawberry production layout should be designed according to local conditions. Efforts should be made to improve strawberry production conditions and strengthen cooperation between different regions to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the strawberry industry.