新疆极端气候时空变化及其与棉花生产关联研究

SPATIOTEMPORAL VARIATION OF EXTREME CLIMATE AND ITS CORRELATION WITH COTTON PRODUCTION IN XINJIANG

关键词:  极端气候  时空变化  气候倾向率  Mann-Kendall  灰色关联

Key words:  extreme climate  spatial-temporal differentiation  climate tendency rate  Mann-Kendall  grey correlation

摘要:

目的 探究新疆极端气候时空变化及其与棉花生产的关联性。方法 文章根据1985—2021年新疆53个气象站点22个极端气候指标、棉花总产量、单位产量和播种面积等数据，采用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall、气象生产分解和灰色关联等方法进行分析。结果 （1）新疆极端气候暖指数与湿指数上升，冷指数与干旱指数下降，暖湿化特征显著。极端气温突变、极端降水第二期突变发生在20世纪90年代中后期至21世纪初。（2）极端降水气候倾向率呈现出明显的东部向西部递增的特征，极端气温在新疆全域表现为显著增长。（3）棉花趋势播种面积、趋势单位产量、趋势总产量呈现出明显的线性上升趋势；气象播种面积、气象总产量呈现出波动上升趋势；气象单位产量呈现出波动趋势。近37年以气候正常年为主。（4）棉花总产量、单位产量、气象单位产量以及总播种面积受极端气温影响较大，气象播种面积与气象总产量则主要受极端降水影响。结论 新疆地区极端气候趋势变化显著，且其与棉花生产关联度非常高，应采取重视天气预报、开展气候区划工作以及加大农业基础设施投资等适应性措施。

Abstract:

This study aims to explore the temporal and spatial variation of extreme climate and its correlation with cotton production in Xinjiang. Utilizing data from 53 meteorological stations, 22 extreme climate indicators, and comprehensive cotton production data (including total production, unit yield, and planting area) spanning from 1985 to 2021, this study employed climate tendency rate, Mann-Kendall, meteorological production decomposition, and gray correlation methods to investigate the spatiotemporal changes of extreme climate in Xinjiang and its correlation with cotton production. (1) The research findings underscored a significant increase in the warm and humid indices of extreme climate in Xinjiang, contrasted by a decline in the cold and drought indices, thereby accentuating the warm and humid characteristics. The mutation of extreme temperature and the secondary mutation of extreme precipitation were observed from the late 1990s to the early 21st century. (2) The climate tendency rate of extreme precipitation revealed a distinct east-to-west increasing trend, while the extreme temperature exhibited a significant rise across Xinjiang. (3) The cotton trend planting area, trend unit yield, and trend total yield all demonstrated a significant linear upward trend; the meteorological planting area and meteorological total yield displayed a fluctuating upward trend; the meteorological unit yield presented a fluctuating trend. Over the past 37 years, normal years had been the most common. The cotton total yield, unit yield, meteorological unit yield, and total planting area were significantly influenced by extreme temperature, whereas the meteorological planting area and meteorological total yield were primarily affected by extreme precipitation. Therefore, the trend of extreme climate change in the Xinjiang region is significant, and its correlation with cotton production is very high. It is therefore recommended that adaptation measures such as monitoring weather forecasts, conducting climate zoning work, and increasing investment in agricultural infrastructure be implemented.