气象灾害下牧户生计恢复力评价度及其障碍因素研究——基于锡林郭勒草原牧区220户牧户的实地调研数据

EVALUATION OF HERDSMEN'S LIVELIHOOD RESILIENCE AND OBSTACLES UNDER METEOROLOGICAL DISASTERS: EVIDENCE OF 220 HERDSMEN IN THE XILIN GOL GRASSLAND PASTORAL AREA

关键词:  生计恢复力  牧户  气象灾害  障碍因素  锡林郭勒草原牧区

Key words:  livelihood resilience  herdsmen  meteorological disasters  obstacle factors  Xilin Gol grassland pastoral area

摘要:

目的 气象灾害给草原牧区的牧户生计带来了巨大风险，分析牧户生计恢复力及其障碍因素是牧户有效抵御灾害、提升恢复力的关键。方法 文章基于锡林郭勒草原牧区220户牧户的实地调研数据，利用综合指数法评价生计恢复力，并通过障碍度模型识别其主要障碍因素。结果 （1）研究区牧户整体生计恢复力为0.316，居于中等水平，在各维度层中，认知能力最强，学习能力最弱。（2）从单因素方差分析可知，除认知能力与自组织能力外，荒漠草原区、典型草原区、草甸草原区牧户的生计恢复力、缓冲能力和学习能力存在显著性差异（P_{生计恢复力}=0.008，P_缓冲能力=0.021，P_学习能力=0.032）。（3）技能获取能力、亲朋好友数量、领导潜力等10项指标是影响牧户生计恢复力的主要障碍因素。结论 基于以上研究结论，提出按照“凭借区域资源优势、双管齐下、强化政策扶持力度”的思路构建牧户生计恢复力提升路径。

Abstract:

Meteorological disasters intimidate the livelihoods of pastoral herders, and the analysis of herdsmen's livelihood resilience and its obstacle factors are the keys to building effective livelihood resilience under disasters. Based on the field survey of 220 herdsmen in Xilin Gol pastoral grassland area, this paper evaluated the livelihood resilience by using the comprehensive index method and quantitively identified the obstacle factors through the obstacle degree model. The results were listed as follows. (1) The overall livelihood resilience of herdsmen was 0.316, at a medium level, and the cognitive ability was the strongest and the learning ability was the weakest among all dimensional layers. (2) According to the one-way ANOVA, in addition to cognitive ability and self-organization ability, there were significant differences in livelihood resilience, buffering ability, and learning ability of herders in desert steppe area, typical grassland area and meadow steppe area (P _{livelihood resilience}=0.008, P _{buffer capacity}=0.021, P _{learning ability}=0.032). (3) Ten indicators, such as skill acquisition ability, number of relatives and friends, and leadership potential, were the main obstacles to the livelihood resilience of herders. Therefore, this paper proposes to construct a path to improve the livelihood resilience of herdsmen according to the idea of "relying on regional resource advantages, two-pronged approach, and strengthening policy support".