四川省生猪养殖时空格局演变及影响因素研究——基于2011—2021年面板数据

STUDY ON TEMPORAL-SPATIAL PATTERN EVOLUTION AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF PIG BREEDING IN SICHUAN PROVINCE——BASED ON PANEL DATA FROM 2011 TO 2021

关键词:  生猪养殖  时空格局演变  自然断点分级法  固定效应模型  影响因素

Key words:  pig breeding  temporal-spatial pattern evolution  natural breakpoint classification method  fixed effect model  influencing factor

摘要:

目的 实现合理的生猪养殖布局，对于更好实现生猪稳产保供具有重要的现实意义。方法 文章基于2011—2021年四川省21市州的面板数据，采用空间布局指数、自然断点分级法和核密度估计等多种方法对各市州的生猪养殖发展状况及其时空格局演变进行分析，然后通过构建固定效应模型分析了生猪养殖空间布局的影响因素。结果 （1）各市州的生猪养殖空间布局指数（I_it）呈现明显的分层现象，成都市最高，甘孜州最低；五大经济区生猪养殖空间布局指数平均值呈现“川东北经济区>成都平原经济区>川南经济区>攀西经济区>川西北生态经济区”的态势。（2）2011—2021年四川省生猪养殖空间布局大致可分为2011—2014年、2015—2017年和2018—2021年3个阶段，在空间上呈现出“/”型、“土”和“工”型的布局。（3）耕地资源、饲料生产能力和城镇化水平对生猪养殖布局有显著正影响。具体来说，耕地资源每提高1%，生猪养殖空间布局指数可提高10.20%；饲料生产能力提高1%，生猪养殖空间布局指数可提高82.00%；城镇化水平提高1%，生猪养殖空间布局指数可提高0.10%。结论 为促进四川省生猪养殖业发展，一方面要依据各区域生猪养殖生产现状，不断强化土地、资金和政策等要素保障；另一方面充分发挥区域的耕地和饲料生产能力比较优势，实现生猪养殖空间布局的优化；最后建议要注重区域发展差异，合理制定环保政策，循序分类推进政策的实施，实现生猪产业发展与环境协调发展双赢。

Abstract:

It is of great practical significance to realize a reasonable pig breeding layout for stable pig production and supply. Based on the panel data of 21 cities in Sichuan province from 2011 to 2021, the spatial layout index and natural breakpoint classification method were used to analyze the development status and spatial-temporal pattern evolution of pig breeding in each city. Then the factors affecting the spatial layout of pig breeding were analyzed by constructing a fixed effect model. The results showed that: (1) The spatial distribution index showed obvious stratification, with the highest in Chengdu and the lowest in Ganzi. The average value of the spatial distribution index of pig breeding in the five major economic zones was the following: "Northeast Sichuan economic zone>Chengdu plain economic zone>South Sichuan economic zone>Panxi economic zone>Northwest Sichuan ecological economic zone. (2) The spatial layout of pig breeding in Sichuan province from 2011 to 2021 could be roughly divided into three stages: 2011-2014, 2015-2017, and 2018-2021, showing the spatial layout of "/", "土" and "工". (3) Land carrying capacity, feed production capacity, and urbanization level had significant positive effects on pig breeding layout. Specifically, with a 1% increase in cultivated land resources, the spatial distribution index of pig breeding could be increased by 10.20%. When the feed production capacity was increased by 1%, the spatial distribution index of pig breeding was increased by 82.00%. When the urbanization level increases by 1%, the spatial layout index of pig breeding could increase by 0.10%. Therefore， to promote the development of the pig breeding industry in Sichuan province, on the one hand, it is necessary to strengthen the factors of land, funds, and policies according to the current situation of pig breeding production in each region. On the other hand, make full use of the comparative advantages of arable land and feed production capacity in the region to optimize the spatial layout of pig breeding; Finally, it is suggested that we should pay attention to regional development differences, rationally formulate environmental protection policies, promote the implementation of policies by classification, and achieve a win-win situation between the development of the live pig industry and the coordinated development of the environment.