长江经济带生猪产业布局的时空变迁及影响机制

SPATIO-TEMPORAL VARIATION AND INFLUENCE MECHANISM OF PIG INDUSTRY LAYOUT IN THE YANGTZE RIVER BASIN

关键词:  生猪  产业布局  时空特征  影响因素  布局优化

Key words:  pig  industry layout  spatial and temporal characteristics  influencing factors  layout optimization

摘要:

目的 高质量发展新格局背景下，生猪产业的可持续发展和转型将是发展重点，需要对其生产布局变迁的阶段性特征及影响因素开展新的讨论。方法 文章运用ArcGIS10.7、重心模型和标准差椭圆模型呈现了2006—2022年长江经济带11省市生猪生产的布局变动及发展趋势，并构建面板模型从资源禀赋、产业基础、经济条件、比较优势和政府政策五个方面探讨“十一五”“十二五”和“十三五”期间生猪生产格局变动的影响因素变化。最终根据污染预警分析对产业布局提出优化建议。结果 生猪生产的地域格局基本稳定，且中游地区产能提升；生猪出栏量和猪肉产量的生产重心大致由东北向西南迁移；劳动力受教育程度、规模异质性、屠宰加工能力、劳动力机会成本和财政投入是长江经济带生猪生产布局变迁的重要影响因素。结论 建议因地制宜地进行生猪生产布局规划，遵循地理距离优先和供需总量平衡原则明确生产区和消费区主体功能，配套相应物流基础设施，平衡供需；加大科技投入，实现清洁生产；组织化、适度规模养殖，加快良种育种；构建长效支持政策以应对转型、防疫过程中存在的各类风险。

Abstract:

In the context of the new pattern of high-quality development, the sustainable development and transformation of the hog industry will be the focus of development. Therefore, a new discussion is needed on the stage characteristics and influencing factors of its production layout changes. By using ArcGIS 10.7, the center of gravity model, and the standard deviation ellipse model, this stduy presented the changes in the layout and development trend of pig production in 11 provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2006 to 2022. And a panel model was constructed to explore the changes in the pig production layout during the "11th," "12th," and "13th Five-Year" periods. The influencing factors of these changes were examined from five aspects: resource endowment, industrial foundation, economic conditions, comparative advantages, and government policies. Ultimately, optimization of the industrial layout was recommended based on pollution early warning analysis. The study found that the geographical pattern of pig production was stable, and the capacity of the middle reaches of the river had increased; the production focus of pig slaughter and pork production shifted from northeast to southwest; the education level of the labor force, scale heterogeneity, slaughtering and processing capacity, labor opportunity cost and financial investment were important factors affecting the changes of pig production layout in the Yangtze River economic belt. Therefore, this research suggests that carrying out pig production layout planning according to local conditions, following the geographical distance priority and the principle of balancing the total supply and demand to clarify the main functions of the production area and the consumption area, supporting the corresponding logistics infrastructure to balance the supply and demand; increasing the scientific and technological investment to achieve clean production; organizing and moderately scale breeding to accelerate the breeding of good seeds; building long-term support policies to deal with various risks in the process of transformation and epidemic prevention.