老龄化对农户多熟种植行为的影响研究——基于南方稻区水稻种植户的调查证据

IMPACT OF AGING ON MULTIPLE CROPPING PRACTICES OF FARM HOUSEHOLDS——EVIDENCE FROM A SURVEY OF RICE FARMERS IN SOUTHERN RICE-PRODUCING REGIONS

关键词:  老龄化  种植行为  水稻  南方稻区  多熟种植

Key words:  aging  planting behavior  rice  southern rice region  ulti-ripening planting

摘要:

目的 在当前老龄化趋势加剧和南方稻区熟制缩减、种植面积下降以及农户种植观念显著变化的背景下，深入探究农业劳动力老龄化与农户多熟种植行为之间的关系，对于提升我国耕地集约利用水平和粮食单产具有至关重要的意义。方法 文章基于南方稻区水稻种植户的调研数据，利用基准回归、分组回归等方法实证分析了农业劳动力老龄化对多熟种植行为的具体影响；进一步从兼业程度、土地转出、农业社会化服务、劳动能力、风险偏好五个方面系统探讨了两者之间的传导机制。结果 （1）农业劳动力年龄与多熟种植行为存在显著的“倒U型”关系，老龄化对多熟种植的概率先增加后减少。（2）优质的耕地条件和地块平整程度能够在一定程度上缓解老龄化对多熟种植的负面效应。异质性分析表明，对于种植大户而言，老龄化带来的负面影响并不显著。（3）机制检验表明，在老龄化初期，降低兼业程度和减少土地转出能够显著提升多熟种植的概率。然而，随着老龄化程度的加深并越过拐点，农户的劳动能力下降和风险偏好的增加变得尤为突出，进而导致多熟种植的概率下降。结论 面对农业劳动力老龄化的严峻形势，不仅需要提升农业社会化服务水平，持续推进机械化以替代部分农业劳动，还需不断完善土地流转制度和要素市场配置机制，促进土地向规模大户、家庭农场等新型经营主体流转，以提高土地单产和农业生产效率。

Abstract:

In the context of an aging population, the reduction in cropping frequency, and the decline in cultivated area in the southern rice regions of China, along with significant shifts in farmers' planting perceptions, it is crucial to explore the relationship between agricultural labor aging and farmers' multi-cropping behaviors. This research is vital for enhancing the intensive use of arable land and increasing grain yield per unit area in China. Using survey data from rice farmers in southern China, this study employed baseline regression and subgroup regression methods to empirically analyze the specific impact of agricultural labor aging on multi-cropping behaviors. Furthermore, the study systematically investigated the transmission mechanisms between these factors from five perspectives: degree of part-time farming, land transfer, agricultural social services, labor capacity, and risk preferences. The results were listed as follows. (1) There was a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between the age of agricultural laborers and multi-cropping behaviors, indicating that the probability of multi-cropping initially increased and then decreased with aging. (2) Additionally, high-quality arable land conditions and the levelness of plots could mitigate the negative effects of aging on multi-cropping to some extent. Heterogeneity analysis indicated that for large-scale farmers, the negative impact of aging was not significant. (3) Mechanism tests showed that in the early stages of aging, reducing part-time farming and land transfer could significantly increase the probability of multi-cropping. However, as aging progresses beyond a certain point, declining in labor capacity and increasing risk preferences become particularly prominent, leading to a decrease in the probability of multi-cropping. So, the conclusion emphasizes that in the face of severe agricultural labor aging, it is essential to enhance agricultural social services and continuously promote mechanization to replace part of the agricultural labor. Additionally, it is necessary to improve the land transfer system and factor market allocation mechanisms, facilitate the transfer of land to large-scale farmers and family farms, so as to improve land productivity and agricultural production efficiency.