黑龙江省乡村人口—土地—产业融合发展对乡村经济的驱动路径研究——基于QCA和NCA的复合分析方法

THE DRIVING PATH OF RURAL POPULATION-LAND-INDUSTRY INTEGRATION DEVELOPMENT ON RURAL ECONOMY IN HEILONGJIANG PROVINCE——COMPOSITE ANALYSIS METHOD BASED ON QCA AND NCA

关键词:  乡村人口—土地—产业  组态  乡村经济发展  fsQCA  NCA

Key words:  rural population-land-industry  configurational  rural economic development  fsQCA  NCA

摘要:

目的 人口—土地—产业等要素是乡村社会系统、自然系统和经济系统的重要组成部分，探索乡村人口—土地—产业要素如何影响乡村经济发展水平及其驱动路径具有现实迫切性。方法 文章运用fsQCA和NCA的复合分析方法，对乡村人口—土地—产业发展指标进行组态研究，探究乡村经济发展水平的驱动路径。结果 （1）非乡村耕地容量水平是影响高乡村经济发展水平的必要前因条件，黑龙江省高乡村经济发展水平并非单一的前因条件所导致。（2）识别出促进黑龙江省高乡村经济发展水平的3种组态驱动路径（H1、H2、H3），分别是技术主导—产业兴旺双轮驱动型、人才培养—土地利用融合发展型和全要素协同驱动型。（3）组态H3：乡村全要素协同驱动型，其原始覆盖度及一致性检验最高，是黑龙江省发展高水平乡村经济的最优驱动路径，其乡村人力资源能力始终作为全部驱动路径的核心条件。结论 该研究为理解乡村人口—土地—产业融合发展的路径选择及破解乡村经济发展滞后问题提供了参考。

Abstract:

Population-land-industry factors are important components of rural social system, natural system and economic system, and it is urgent to explore how rural population-land-industry factors affect the level of rural economic development and its driving path. This research applied the composite analysis method of fsQCA and NCA to configurational the indicators of rural population-land-industry development to explore the driving path of rural economic development level. The results showed that: (1) The level of non-rural arable land capacity was a necessary antecedent condition influencing the level of high rural economic development, and the level of high rural economic development in Heilongjiang province was not caused by a single antecedent condition. (2) Three kinds of group-driven paths (H1, H2, H3) were identified to promote the high rural economic development level in Heilongjiang province, which were technology-led-industry flourishing double-wheel drive type, talent cultivation-land use integrated development type and all-factor synergistic drive type. ③ Group state H3: rural all-factor synergy-driven type, which had the highest original coverage and consistency test, was the optimal and better driving path for the development of high-level rural economy in Heilongjiang province, and the capacity of its rural human resources had always been used as the core condition of all driving paths. Finally, this study provides a reference for understanding the path choice of population-land-industry integrated development in the countryside and cracking the problem of lagging rural economic development.