| 摘要: |
| 目的 面对日益复杂的水资源供给形势，正确认识农业用水价值、加快推进农业水价综合改革对于保障国家水资源安全意义重大。方法 文章利用模糊数学模型，对全国31个省（市、区，不含港澳台）农业用水价值和主要粮食作物灌溉水价值进行定量评价，并分析其与省域水资源价值的差异性及其表现出的区域和空间特征。结果 （1）各地农业用水价值（VWA）和三大主要粮食作物灌溉水价值（VWA-RWM）均值分别为0.627元/m3和0.340元/m3，显著低于省域水资源价值（VWP）的均值4.24元/m3；（2）全国农业用水价值存在显著的空间关联性和不均衡性，呈现北方>南方、东部>中部>西部、华北>华东>华中>西南>西北>华南>东北的区域特征，并表现出在华北地区“高—高”聚集、在青海“低—低”聚集的空间关系；（3）粮食主产区三大主要粮食作物灌溉水价值总体高于非主产区、农业和省域水资源价值则呈现主产区低于非主产区现象。结论 应该建立合理的农业水价制度，落实对粮食主产区及其灌溉水价的补偿机制，警惕农业用水用途转变。 |
| 关键词: 模糊数学模型 农业用水价值 水资源安全 空间特征 农业用水安全 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20250604 |
| 分类号:F323.213 |
| 基金项目:中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项“水资源短缺背景下的粮食安全问题研究”（Y2024ZK24）；国家重点研发计划项目课题“玉米生产全程综合效益评价”（2023YFD2000104-04）；第三次新疆综合科学考察项目子课题“塔里木河流域光水资源承载力评价”（2021xjkk0203） |
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| THE AGRICULTURAL WATER VALUE IN CHINA BASED ON FUZZY MATHEMATICAL MODEL |
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Feng Xin1,2,3, Liu Zixuan1,2, Jiang Wenlai1,2
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1.State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arable Land in China, Beijing 100081, China;2.Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;3.Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
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| Abstract: |
| In the face of the increasingly complex water supply situation, it is of great significance to correctly understand the value of agricultural water and accelerate the reform of comprehensive agricultural water pricing in order to guarantee China's water security. Using a fuzzy mathematical model of water resources value, this research calculated the value of agricultural water and the value of irrigation water for major food crops in 31 provinces (cities, autonomous region, excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan), and analyzed the differences between them and the provincial water resources value, as well as the regional and spatial characteristics they showed. The results indicated that the mean values of agricultural water (VWA) and irrigation water for the three main grain crops (VWA-RWM) were 0.627 yuan/m3 and 0.340 yuan/m3, which was lower than the value of provincial water resources (VWP) as a whole. (2) There were significant spatial correlations and imbalances in the value of agricultural water use across the country, presenting the spatial characteristics of North > South, East > Central > West, North China > East China > Central China > Southwest China > Northwest China > South China > Northeast China, and displaying the spatial relationship of ‘high-high’ aggregation in North China and ‘low-low’ aggregation in Qinghai. (3) The value of irrigation water for the three major food crops was higher than that of non-main producing areas, and the value of agricultural and provincial water resources was lower than that of non-main producing areas. In summary, it should establish a reasonable agricultural water pricing system, implement a compensation mechanism for the main food-producing areas and their irrigation water prices, and prevent the diversion of agricultural water. |
| Key words: fuzzy mathematical model agricultural water value water resource security spatial characteristics agricultural water resource security |
