华北平原区占用耕地绿化造林时空分布及复耕潜力评价

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF GREENING AND AFFORESTATION OF OCCUPIED ARABLE LAND AND EVALUATION OF REPLANTING POTENTIAL IN THE NORTH CHINA PLAIN AREA

关键词:  耕地保护  绿化造林  时空分布  复耕潜力  华北平原区

Key words:  cropland protection  greening and afforestation  spatial and temporal distribution  replanting potential  North China Plain area

摘要:

目的 科学监测识别占用耕地绿化造林尤其是平原区占用耕地绿化造林现象，建立平原区耕地恢复潜力评价体系，是扎实推进超标准占用耕地绿化造林地区耕地恢复工作的基础。方法 文章基于土地利用转移矩阵、地理探测器、地理加权回归模型（GWR）等方法，系统分析1980—2020年华北平原区占用耕地绿化造林的时空分布、驱动因素及复耕潜力。结果 （1）1980—2020年华北平原区占用耕地绿化造林面积20.332 4万hm²，因占用耕地绿化造林导致粮食产能流失238.61万t，可满足1 744.23万人一年的粮食需求；（2）占用耕地绿化造林主要受自然条件、社会经济、区位因素三方面驱动，同一驱动因素在空间上的作用效果存在差异，其中地方财政预算支出、距主要河流距离和距建成区距离对占用耕地绿化造林影响最为显著；（3）在界定绿化造林合理区与复耕潜力区的基础上，采用综合评价法将华北平原区复耕潜力划分为高、较高、中和低4个等级；（4）从县域尺度来看，华北平原区所跨7个省（市）包含的692个县级行政区中有复耕潜力的行政区有286个，包含一级潜力区55个、二级潜力区97个、三级潜力区110个、四级潜力区24个，无复耕潜力的行政区共计406个。结论 研究结果反映了华北平原区绿化造林耕地的恢复潜力，可为我国耕地保护工作提供指导。

Abstract:

In recent years, the phenomenon of occupying arable land for greening and afforestation has been repeatedly prohibited, and the "non-farming" and "non-food" of arable land has been increasing, posing a serious threat to the protection of arable land and food security. It is of great significance to scientifically monitor and identify the phenomenon of occupying arable land for afforestation, especially in the plains area, to establish an evaluation system of arable land restoration potential in the plains area, to make up for the gaps in the current research, and to promote the restoration of arable land in areas where the occupying of arable land is over-standardised, so as to enhance the efficiency of land use and food production capacity, to improve the current situation of the resources and environment, and to promote the development of the rural economy. This study systematically analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution, driving factors and restoration potential of occupied arable land greening and afforestation in the North China Plain area during 1980-2020 based on the land use transfer matrix, grain loss production capacity accounting, geo-detector, and geographically-weighted regression model (GWR). The results showed that: (1) The area of occupied cropland afforestation in the North China Plain area during the 40-year period was 203 324 400 hm², and the loss of food production capacity due to the occupation of cropland afforestation was 2 386 100 tons, which could satisfy the food demand of 17 442 300 people for one year. (2) The afforestation of occupied arable land in the North China Plain was mainly affected by natural conditions, socio-economic and locational factors. There were differences in the spatial effects of the same influencing factors. Among them, local financial budget expenditure, distance from major rivers and distance from built-up areas had the most significant influence on the phenomenon of occupying arable land for greening and afforestation. (3) On the basis of defining the reasonable area for greening and afforestation and the potential area for replanting, the replanting potential of the North China Plain area was divided into four grades of high potential, high potential, medium potential and low potential using the comprehensive evaluation method, and the area of each grade accounted for 35.16%, 34.67%, 26.67%, and 3.5% of the area of the potential area for replanting, respectively. (4) In terms of county scale, there were 286 county-level administrative districts in the 692 county-level administrative districts in the seven provinces (municipalities) spanning the North China Plain that had potential for replanting, including 55 first-level potential districts, 97 second-level potential districts, 110 third-level potential districts, and 24 fourth-level potential districts. The results of the study reflect the restoration potential of greening and afforestation arable land in the North China Plain, which can provide guidance for the protection of arable land in China.