“双碳”视域下内蒙古地区农业生态效率时空演进特征及影响因素研究

THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EVOLUTION CHARACTERISTICS AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF AGRICULTURAL ECOLOGICAL EFFICIENCY IN INNER MONGOLIA FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF "DUAL CARBON"

关键词:  “双碳”  农业生态效率  时空演进  影响因素  内蒙古

Key words:  dual carbon  agricultural ecological efficiency  spatiotemporal evolution  influencing factor  Inner Mongolia

摘要:

目的 农业生产活动是碳排放的重要来源之一，从“双碳”视域出发，对农业生态效率展开研究，探索实现以较少的资源代价换取较高的农业生态收益，对推动农业绿色高质发展意义重大。方法 文章以内蒙古自治区及其12个盟市为研究对象，构建农业生态效率综合评价指标体系，采用全局超效率SBM模型及灰色关联分析模型，研究2001—2022年农业生态效率时空变化及其影响因素。结果 （1）2001—2022年内蒙古自治区农业生态效率呈现出先降低后升高的“U”形变化，与碳汇、碳源比率变化规律基本一致；（2）各盟市农业生态效率发展水平不同，整体为波动上升的趋势，大致呈现东部高于西部，西部高于中部的格局。其中阿拉善盟、呼伦贝尔市、赤峰市和通辽市为第一层级，巴彦淖尔市、乌海市、兴安盟和锡林郭勒盟为第二层级，呼和浩特市、包头市、鄂尔多斯市和乌兰察布市为第三层级；（3）劳均耕地水平、化肥使用强度、工业化程度、农业产值比例、农村居民可支配收入和人均GDP与农业生态效率的关联度较高，分别为0.775 1、0.752 5、0.704 1、0.672 4、0.663 4和0.645 8。结论 未来内蒙古自治区应根据各盟市的资源禀赋特点，探索各自农业的发展重点，逐步缓解内部发展不平衡的矛盾，准确把握影响农业生态效率的关键因素，切实提升整体农业生态效率水平。

Abstract:

One of the important sources of carbon emissions is agricultural production activities. Conducting research on agricultural ecological efficiency from the perspective of "dual carbon" and exploring ways to achieve higher agricultural ecological benefits at a lower resource cost is of great significance for promoting green and high-quality agricultural development. This research took Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and its 12 leagues and cities as the research object, constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system for agricultural ecological efficiency, and used the global super efficiency SBM model and grey correlation analysis model to study the spatiotemporal changes and influencing factors of agricultural ecological efficiency from 2001 to 2022. The results showed that: (1) From 2001 to 2022, the agricultural ecological efficiency in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region showed a "U" - shaped change of first decreasing and then increasing, which was basically consistent with the changes in carbon sink and carbon source ratios. (2) The development level of agricultural ecological efficiency varied among different league cities, with an overall fluctuating upward trend, generally showing a pattern of higher efficiency in the east than in the west and higher efficiency in the west than in the central region. Among them, Alxa league, Hulunbuir city, Chifeng city, and Tongliao city were the first level, Bayannur city, Wuhai city, Xing'an league, and Xilingol league were the second level, and Hohhot city, Baotou city, Ordos city, and Ulanqab city were the third level. (3) The correlation between the per capita arable land scale, fertilizer intensity, industrialization level, proportion of agricultural output value, disposable income of rural residents, per capita GDP and agricultural ecological efficiency was relatively high, with values of 0.7751, 0.7525, 0.7041, 0.6724, 0.6634, and 0.6458, respectively. Therefore, in the future, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region should explore its own agricultural development priorities based on the resource endowment characteristics of each league and city, gradually alleviate the contradictions of internal unbalanced development, accurately grasp the key factors affecting agricultural ecological efficiency, and effectively improve the overall level of agricultural ecological efficiency.