| 摘要: |
| 目的 粮食安全背景下，针对多熟制种植体系下多作物的种植适宜性动态模拟和评价研究不足，科学掌握作物空间分布对耕地资源科学开发利用具有重要科学价值。方法 基于EcoCrop模型，文章以水稻、春玉米、芝麻、冬油菜和紫云英等为研究对象，建立模型参数本地化调整方法框架，利用maxSSS（Maximizing the sum of Sensitivity and Specificity）方法确定不同作物特定的适宜性可行性阈值（即低于该阈值，该作物不适宜种植），实现鄱阳湖平原地区典型作物的种植适宜性动态模拟和评价。结果 （1）利用该研究模型参数本地化方法确定的模型参数调整结果表现出了一定的鲁棒性，仅有1%~14%的区域在参数阈值调整前后模拟结果发生变化，且模型空间模拟结果与实际作物分布数据间表现出了较好的一致性。（2）不同作物间的种植适宜性特定可行性阈值存在差异性，水稻、芝麻、春玉米、冬油菜和紫云英的特定可行性阈值分别为0.93、0.98、0.47、0.45和0.55。（3）研究作物均具有多样性的种植窗口，且同一作物在不同种植窗口下的空间分布上具有一定的差异性。结论 该研究开展了多作物在不同种植窗口下的种植适宜性模拟和特定性评价，对开展作物适宜性模拟研究提供了新思路，可为种植制度设计、种植结构优化调整及粮食安全保障提供技术支持和路径选择。 |
| 关键词: EcoCrop模型 作物适宜性 maxSSS 鄱阳湖平原 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20250609 |
| 分类号:S126 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目“基于作物适宜性的南方冬闲田集约化利用机制及优化研究”(42401331)；浙江省哲学社会科学规划课题“浙江省冬闲田分布现状、变化机制与复耕路径研究”(24NDQN053YB)；浙江省教育厅科研项目“浙江省作物轮作系统遥感监测及优化重构”(Y202352245)；全国统计科学研究项目“数量与质量协同的作物轮作系统空间配置研究：遥感监测、效应测度与优化重构”(2024LY051) |
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| DYNAMIC SIMULATION AND EVALUATION OF SPATIAL SUITABILITY FOR TYPICAL CROPS IN SOUTHERN CHINA USING THE ECOCROP MODEL |
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Shen Ge1,2,3,4, Liu Hang5, Yu Qiangyi2,3,4, Wu Wenbin2,3,4
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1.School of Public Administration, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, Zhejiang, China;2.State Key Laboratory of Efficient Utilization of Arable Land in China, Beijing 100081, China;3.Key Laboratory of Agricultural Remote Sensing, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing 100081, China;4.Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;5.Dongfang College, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Jiaxing 314408, Zhejiang, China
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| Abstract: |
| Understanding crop spatial distribution patterns holds significant scientific value for optimizing arable land utilization under food security imperatives. However, current research inadequately addresses dynamic suitability simulation and multi-crop adaptability evaluation in multi-cropping systems. In this study, using the EcoCrop model, we developed a localized parameter adjustment framework for rice, spring maize, sesame, winter rapeseed, and Chinese milk vetch (Astragalus sinicus). The maxSSS (Maximizing the sum of Sensitivity and Specificity) method was employed to determine crop-specific feasibility thresholds (below which cultivation is deemed unsuitable). This enabled dynamic simulation of potential growing period windows (start month of growing periods) and spatial suitability patterns for typical crops in the Poyang Lake Plain. Our study results were showed as follows. (1) The localized parameter adjustment method demonstrated robust performance, with only 1%~14% of study areas showing simulated result variations post-adjustment. Spatial simulations exhibited strong consistency with actual crop distribution data. (2) There were differences in the specific feasibility thresholds for planting suitability among different crops. Feasibility thresholds were quantified as 0.93 (rice), 0.98 (sesame), 0.47 (spring maize), 0.45 (winter rapeseed), and 0.55 (Chinese milk vetch). (3) All crops displayed diverse growing period windows, with distinct spatial distribution patterns across different windows. So, this study advances multi-crop suitability simulation under variable growing windows, offering a novel framework for crop adaptation modeling. And the findings can provide technical support for cropping system design, agricultural structure optimization, and enhance food security governance. |
| Key words: EcoCrop model crop suitability maxSSS Poyang Lake Plain |
