农地流转期限与农户耕地质量保护行为——兼论不同流转行为的影响差异

TERM OF FARMLAND TRANSFER AND FARMERS' BEHAVIOR OF PROTECTING THE QUALITY OF CULTIVATED LAND——AN INTRODUCTION TO THE DIFFERENCES IN IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TRANSFER BEHAVIORS

关键词:  农地流转期限  耕地质量保护行为  选择性偏误  内生转换Probit模型  平均处理效应

Key words:  term of farmland transfer  cultivated land quality protection behavior  selective bias  endogenous switching probit model  average treatment effect

摘要:

目的 论证农地流转期限对农户采纳耕地质量保护行为的影响，基于跨期行为选择与家庭分工结构变化的角度，分别构建农地转入户与转出户采纳耕地质量保护行为的分析框架，以期为引导与优化流转户采纳耕地质量保护行为提供借鉴与参考。方法 文章基于中国土地经济调查（CLES）调研数据，利用内生转换Probit模型进行实证分析，借助更换模型法对模型结果进行稳健性检验。结果 （1）长期的土地转入对转入户采纳耕地质量保护行为具有显著的正向促进作用；短期的土地转出对未退出生产经营活动的转出户采纳耕地质量保护行为具有显著的正向促进作用。（2）经营规模，耕地细碎化程度，人力资源禀赋，社会资源禀赋是影响农户流转期限选择的重要因素。（3）家庭经营决策者的非农就业稳定性对短期转出土地的转出户采纳耕地质量保护行为具有显著的正向促进作用，对长期转出土地的转出户保护行为的采纳具有显著的负向的抑制作用。结论 长期的土地转入行为能够显著促进农地转入户采纳保护行为，对此应当鼓励农地长期稳定的向同一用地主体流转。家庭经营决策者的非农就业稳定性能够有效调节流转期限对农地转出户采纳保护行为的负向抑制作用。针对非农就业稳定性较弱的兼业转出户，短期的土地转出行为能够显著促进其采纳保护行为，对此应当强化其对于流转地块产权归属的政策信心，鼓励其长期转出地块。针对非农就业稳定性较强的兼业转出户，长期的土地转出行为将显著抑制其采纳保护行为，一方面应该探索其土地承包权退出办法，另一方面则应该鼓励其参与农业社会化服务。

Abstract:

To demonstrate the impact of the duration of agricultural land transfer on the adoption of farmland quality protection behaviors by farmers. This research aims to construct an analytical framework for the adoption of farmland quality protection behaviors by transferring of farmland to and from households based on the perspectives of inter-temporal behavioral choices and changes in the structure of the household division of labor, with a view to providing a reference for guiding and optimizing the adoption of farmland quality protection behaviors by the transferring households. Farmers are the micro-behavioral agents in implementing farmland quality protection. Based on the research data of China Land Economy Survey (CLES), this research utilized the endogenous transition probit model to conduct empirical analysis, and the results of the model were tested for robustness with the help of the replacement model method. The results were listed as follows. The probability that a farmer who had transferred in to land for a long period of time would adopt arable land quality protection behaviors would decrease by 24.8% if they transfer land for a short period of time; the probability that a farmer who had transferred out of land for a long period of time would adopt arable land quality protection behaviors for the remaining non-transferred plots of land would increase by 13.6% if they transfer land for a short period of time. The probability of the households transferring in agricultural land with no experience of working outside the farm would adopt protection behaviors on the remaining non-transferred plots would decrease by 8.1% if the transferring household had transferred out of land for a short period of time; the probability of the households transferring in agricultural land that worked part-time or engaged in other unstable non-farming work would adopt protection behaviors on the remaining non-transferred plots would decrease by 35.9%; The probability of adopting conservation behavior on the remaining non-transferred plots decreased by 59.9 percent for those who were self-employed or had a stable non-farm job. In summary, long-term land transfers can significantly promote the adoption of conservation behaviors by households transferring in agricultural land, which should be encouraged by long-term and stable transfers of agricultural land to the same landowner. The stability of off-farm employment of household decision makers can effectively regulate the negative inhibitory effect of the duration of transfer on the adoption of conservation behaviors by farmland transfer-out households. For part-time land transfer-out households with weak non-farm employment stability, short-term land transfer can significantly promote their adoption of conservation behaviors, which should be strengthened by encouraging them to transfer land for a long period of time with confidence in the ownership of the transferred land. For part-time transfer-out households with strong non-farm employment stability, long-term land transfer will significantly inhibit their adoption of conservation behaviors, so on the one hand, we should explore ways to withdraw from their land contract rights, and on the other hand, we should encourage them to participate in agricultural socialization services.