江苏省乡村聚落格局及其驱动因子分析

RURAL SETTLEMENT PATTERN AND ITS DRIVING FACTORS IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

关键词:  乡村聚落  土地利用  回归分析  景观格局  影响因子

Key words:  rural settlements  land use  regression analysis  landscape pattern  influencing factor

摘要:

目的 探究快速城镇化乡村聚落景观格局特征及其影响因素，为快速城镇化发展省份乡村景观保护规划和土地空间整治提供参考。方法 文章采用景观格局指数法分析江苏省乡村聚落空间分异特点，然后引入多元Logistic 回归模型和因子分析分别从地理因素和社会经济因素两方面对其格局空间分异影响因素进行深入探讨。结果 （1）江苏省乡村聚落空间分异特征明显，苏北地区乡村聚落斑块数量最多，规模大，分布密集，破碎程度低；苏中地区乡村聚落斑块数量较多，规模小，分布较密集，破碎程度最高；苏南地区乡村聚落斑块数量较少，规模小，分布稀疏，破碎程度低；相对于苏南地区，苏北和苏中地区乡村聚落形态较不规整。（2）多元Logistic回归分析结果：规模特征影响因素有到城市中心的距离、到最近省道的距离、到最近主要河流的距离、耕作半径；分布特征影响因素有坡度、到城市中心距离、到最近主要河流距离；形态特征影响因素有到城市中心的距离、到最近省道的距离、到高速公路的距离。（3）通过多因子分析法提取第一公因子：规模特征主要解释因子为政府因素，主要包括政策投入水平和交通发展水平，累计解释贡献值为33.41%；分布特征主要解释因子为经济因素，主要包括乡村的工业化水平和农村居民收入水平，累计解释贡献值为27.11%；形态特征主要解释因子为人口因素，主要包括乡村非农就业和农业人口水平，累计解释贡献值为16.84%。结论 社会经济因素（主要是政府因素）是造成江苏省乡村聚落景观格局空间分异的主要因素，其次是经济和人口因素，这些因素深刻影响着传统乡村聚落景观，表现在聚落景观的异质化、空心化和破碎化等方面。未来研究需要进一步挖掘乡村聚落格局时空演变规律，深入探讨各因素的作用机理，同时结合乡村内部因素和乡村主体意愿，不断完善乡村聚落研究体系，助力乡村高质量可持续发展；政府需要做好顶层规划设计，基于绿色发展和保护观念，做好乡村聚落优化布局，建设现代美丽乡村。

Abstract:

In order to explore the landscape pattern characteristics and influencing factors of rural settlements in provinces undergoing rapid urbanization, and to provide a reference for rural landscape protection planning and land spatial remediation in provinces undergoing rapid urbanization development. The spatial distribution characteristics of rural settlements in Jiangsu province were analyzed in detail through landscape pattern index, and the factors affecting the spatial differentiation characteristics of landscape patterns in Jiangsu province were explored in depth from two aspects, geographical factors and socio-economic factors, using multiple logistic regression models and factor analysis. The results were showed as follows. (1) The distribution pattern of rural settlements in Jiangsu province had obvious spatial differentiation characteristics, with the largest number of patches, large scale, dense distribution, and relatively low degree of fragmentation in rural settlements in northern Jiangsu; The rural settlements in the central Jiangsu region had a large number of patches, small scale, dense distribution, and the highest degree of fragmentation; The number of rural settlement patches in the southern Jiangsu region was relatively small, the scale was small, the distribution was sparse, and the degree of fragmentation was low; Compared to the southern Jiangsu region, the rural settlement patterns in the northern and central Jiangsu regions were relatively irregular. (2) The main factors affecting the scale characteristics of rural settlements included distance to the city center, distance to the nearest provincial road, distance to the nearest major river, and cultivation radius; The main factors affecting the distribution characteristics of settlements included terrain factors (slope), distance to the city center, and distance to the nearest major river; The main factors affecting the characteristics of settlement morphology included the distance to the city center, the distance to the nearest provincial road, and the distance to the highway. (3) The main explanatory factors for the scale characteristics were the level of government policy investment and the level of transportation development, with a cumulative explanatory contribution value of 33.41%; The main explanatory factors for the distribution characteristics were the industrialization level of rural areas and the income level of rural residents, with a cumulative explanatory contribution value of 27.11%; The main explanatory factors for the morphological characteristics were rural non-agricultural employment and agricultural population level, with a cumulative explanatory contribution value of 16.84%. In summary, socioeconomic factors are the main factors causing spatial differentiation of rural settlement landscape patterns, including social (mainly government factors), economic, and demographic factors, which have profoundly changed traditional rural settlement landscapes, manifested in accelerating the heterogeneity, hollowing out, and fragmentation of settlement landscapes. Future research needs to further explore the spatiotemporal evolution laws of rural settlement patterns, delve into the mechanisms of various factors, and continuously improve the research system of rural settlements by combining internal factors and the willingness of rural subjects, in order to promote high-quality and sustainable development of rural areas; additionally, the government needs to do a good job in top-level planning and design, based on the concepts of green development and protection, optimize the layout of rural settlements, and establish modern and beautiful countryside.